Chart pack · AI infrastructure

002Who funds the neoclouds?

CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN, Lambda and Nscale need about $623B of capex through 2030 to hit their own targets. Prepayments and operating cash flow cover $278B. The other $347B has to come from debt or equity, plus $75B of GPU loans to roll, at a time when CoreWeave’s bonds yield 15%.

Oct 16, 2026

Capex, 2026–30

$623B

All five · base case

Covered by operating cash flow

$136B

22% of capex; $54B in 2030

Covered by customer prepays

$142B

23% of capex

Needs debt or equity

$347B

56% of capex · peak 2027

Gross issuance

$422B

Incl. $75B of GPU loans to roll

Capex by year, and how it gets paid for

Full bar = calendar-year capex. Orange is what prepayments and operating cash flow can’t cover. Operating cash flow is after interest and excludes revenue a customer already prepaid, so the same cash is never counted twice.

Capex per GW 100%Prepay coverage 100%EBITDA vs base 100%The sliders move modeled years only: 2027 onward, plus Lambda’s 2026 capex.

Company by company

Same scale for all five; the gridline marks $30B. Each header shows the 2026–30 debt or equity need and its share of capex. Click a company to focus the page on it.

The gap peaks in 2027, then cash flow takes over

In the base case, net new money peaks at $90B in 2027. Operating cash flow is only $3B in 2026, with Nscale still losing money and IREN about break-even, but it reaches $54B by 2030 and covers 22% of capex over the five years. CoreWeave is $148B of the $347B the group needs.

Most of that cash is already spoken for

The operating cash flow here is after $61B of interest and excludes $69B of revenue customers prepaid in earlier years. Much of it comes from capacity financed with amortizing GPU loans, which get paid down first: $75B of scheduled amortization has to be raised again, which takes gross issuance to $422B. The 2026 need is roughly covered already: the five raised or committed about $76B this year against a $68B net need. The open question is 2027–30.

What the money costs

Rate at issue on each 2026 raise, with earlier deals for reference. Rings show where CoreWeave’s bonds trade now and what Nebius’ accreting converts yield if held to maturity. Floating loans are shown at SOFR of 3.88% plus their spread.

5.9–6.9%Secured GPU debt rated or priced investment grade

8.4–9.4%Secured GPU debt below investment grade

15.1%CoreWeave 9.75% 2031s on Oct 16, issued at par in April

0.5–4.5%Convert cash coupons; 3.2–7.1% for Nebius with accretion

Rate at issueMarket yield now / yield incl. accretionEarlier deal

Convertible coupons understate the cost: the rest is paid in conversion optionality and dilution. Nscale’s $3.36B pre-IPO converts (September, including $1B from Nvidia) are left off because no coupon has been disclosed; they convert at a double-digit discount to the IPO price, capped at a $30B valuation.

What they raised in 2026

Facilities and offerings announced Jan 1 to Oct 16, 2026, at committed size, excluding customer prepayments. Each company’s mix here drives the “By funding type” view above.

Secured GPU debtUnsecured notesConvertiblesEquityStill being raised

Secured debt got cheaper. Unsecured debt didn’t.

GPU loans backed by investment-grade customers now price at 5.9–6.9%, against about 15% on CoreWeave’s first GPU loan and 13–15% on Nscale’s earlier private credit. Unsecured paper went the other way. CoreWeave’s 9.75% 2031s, issued at par in April, traded at 81.8 on October 16 for a 15.1% yield, and its five-year CDS hit a record 1,194.5 bp the day before. Its September convert needed a 2.875% coupon and a 22.5% premium, against 1.75% and 30% in April.

A third of the need leans on converts

If each company keeps its 2026 financing mix, $139B of the $347B comes as secured GPU debt and $123B as convertibles. Nebius drives that: 93% of what it raised this year was convertible. The cash coupons look cheap at 0.5–4.5%, but the notes accrete to 110–125% at maturity, a 3.2–7.1% yield if they never convert, plus the dilution if they do. That channel depends on the share prices, and CoreWeave and Nebius each lost about a fifth of their value this week.

The numbers

$B, calendar years, for the selection above. Reflects the sliders.

Cumulative 2026–30 by company

Company	Capex	Prepays	Cash-flow funded	Debt / equity	Share	Peak year	GPU loans to roll
CoreWeave	$234B	$24B	$62B	$148B	63%	2027	$40B
Nebius	$146B	$56B	$21B	$69B	47%	2028	$2B
IREN	$106B	$33B	$25B	$48B	45%	2027	$13B
Lambda	$74B	$7B	$20B	$46B	63%	2028	$8B
Nscale	$64B	$22B	$8B	$36B	56%	2027	$12B
All five	$623B	$142B	$136B	$347B	56%	2027	$75B

What this is anchored on

Guidance, filings and market data as of October 16, 2026.

Ticker	Data point	Source
CRWV	2026 capex $35–39B; revenue $12.4–13.2B; ≥1.85 GW active power by year-end; ≥8 GW by 2030; 4.2 GW contracted	CoreWeave Q2 2026 call, Aug 11 2026
CRWV	Q2 adj. EBITDA $1.51B (59%); net interest $640M; deferred revenue $9.7B at Jun 30; H1 operating cash flow $3.66B	CoreWeave Q2 2026 results
CRWV	DDTL 4.0 $8.5B (A3, ~5.9% fixed / SOFR+225); DDTL 5.0 $3.1B (Ba2, SOFR+450); DDTL 5.5 $2.6B (SOFR+550)	Company releases Mar 31 and May 18 2026; Stocktitan debt summary
CRWV	9.75% 2031 notes $2.75B (Apr); 9.625% 2032 $1.25B and 8.50% € 2032 €2B (Jun); converts 1.75% 2032 $4.0B (Apr), 2.875% 2033 $4.2B (Sep)	Company releases, Apr–Sep 2026
CRWV	9.75% 2031s at 81.8 / 15.08% yield (Oct 16); 5-year CDS record 1,194.5 bp (Oct 15); Nvidia $2B equity (Jan)	ICE via Bloomberg/Benzinga, Oct 16 2026; Bloomberg, Jan 26 2026
NBIS	2026 capex $20–25B; revenue $3.0–3.4B; ~40% adj. EBITDA margin; 0.8–1 GW connected and 5 GW contracted by year-end; >$9B prepayments in 2026 covering 50–60% of associated capex	Nebius Q1/Q2 2026 results and calls
NBIS	Converts $4.34B 1.25% 2031 / 2.625% 2033 accreting to 120% (Mar); $5.75B 0.50% 2030 (110%) / 4.50% 2034 (125%) (Aug); first secured loan ~$775M at SOFR+250 (Jul)	Nebius 6-K filings, Mar and Aug 2026
IREN	FY27 capex $25–30B; 0.3 GW IT in 2026, 0.8 GW cumulative in 2027; $4B contracted run rate for 2026 capacity; prepays 45–55% of GPU capex	IREN FY26 results and call, Aug 27 2026
IREN	$3.65B investment-grade GPU financing at 6.0% (Jun); $2.4B Blue Owl/PIMCO at 9.0% (Aug); $3.0B 1.00% 2033 converts (May)	IREN releases, May–Aug 2026
Lambda	3 GW by 2030 target; backlog $15B (Jun) to $50B (Sep); 2026 revenue above $1.5B; raising up to $4B pre-IPO	WSJ via TechCrunch, Oct 6 2026; Bloomberg
Lambda	$926M term loan B (Baa2, SOFR+300, Aug); $1.008B DDTL at 6.78% fixed (Baa1, Oct); $1B secured facility (May)	Lambda releases, May–Oct 2026
Nscale	$103.4B contracted (Microsoft ≤$43.8B, Anthropic ≤$44.6B for 460 MW); $24B equipment + $3.5B construction committed, mainly 2026–27; H1 capex $3.2B; deferred revenue $2.0B to $6.5B	Nscale S-1, Sep 18 2026
Nscale	$3.36B pre-IPO converts incl. $1B Nvidia (Sep); newest facilities SOFR+237.5 (IG); legacy Sandton loans 13–15%	Nscale release Sep 25 2026; S-1
Rates	SOFR 3.88% and fed funds 3.75–4.00% after a September hike; 10-year UST 5.12%; US high-yield index effective yield ~8.1%	Fed/market data, Oct 13–16 2026

Method

Capex. 2026 is company guidance at midpoints, with IREN converted from its June fiscal year and Nscale built from the commitments in its S-1. Later years turn each company’s stated power target into capacity added per year, priced at a company-specific capex per GW. Lambda’s whole path is our estimate.

Prepayments are gross cash received, from guidance (Nebius, IREN), filings (CoreWeave, Nscale) or an assumed share of capex.

Operating cash flow is revenue × adjusted EBITDA margin, less cash interest on the debt the model raises (solved year by year), less revenue a customer prepaid in an earlier year. No cash taxes (bonus depreciation, losses) and no working-capital swings. It is the biggest swing factor in 2028–30; the EBITDA slider flexes it.

Debt or equity needed is what’s left, split by each company’s 2026 financing mix. Scheduled amortization of secured GPU loans (about five years) is shown as refinancing on top. Bullet maturities inside the window, such as CoreWeave’s 2030 notes and Nebius’ February 2030 converts if they don’t convert, are not included.

Not included: GPU refresh as 2024–25 fleets come off their first contracts; leased powered shells, whose rent is already inside EBITDA; and Crusoe, whose Abilene campus sits in a separately financed joint venture. Power units differ: CoreWeave counts active power, Nebius connected power, IREN critical IT load.

CoreWeave CRWV

At least 8 GW active by 2030 (1.85 GW guided for year-end 2026; 4.2 GW contracted in August).

Capex: 2026 at the $35–39B guidance midpoint. Then +6.15 GW to reach 8 GW (1.35 GW in 2027, then 1.5 / 1.6 / 1.7 GW) at about $32B per GW; most data centers are leased.
Prepayments counted gross: about $2B arrived in H1 2026, so 2026 is set at $4.0B, then 10% of capex.
Cash flow: $12.8B of revenue in 2026, then about $9.5B per GW-year of average active power (consistent with the ~$30B exit run rate pointed to for 2027). 60% adjusted EBITDA margin (Q2: 59%). 8% cash interest on all debt. The $8.2B deferred-revenue balance comes out over four years.
2026 raised: $14.2B secured, $6.3B unsecured notes, $8.2B converts, $3B equity.

Nebius NBIS

5 GW contracted by year-end 2026, nearly all online within 2 to 3.5 years; 0.8–1 GW connected at year-end 2026; more than 1 GW of new capacity in 2027.

Capex: 2026 at the $20–25B guidance midpoint. Then about 4.1 GW to reach roughly 5 GW, phased 1.1 / 1.4 / 1.1 / 0.5 GW so it lands by early 2030, at about $30B per GW (more than 75% owned sites).
Prepayments: more than $9B guided for 2026, then 38% of capex (about 70% of Q2 deals carried prepays covering 50–60% of capex).
Cash flow: $3.2B of revenue in 2026, then about $8B per GW-year of average connected power. EBITDA margin 40% (guided), 45% in 2027, 50% after. 3% cash interest; convert accretion is paid at maturity, not counted here.
2026 raised: $10.1B of converts and a first $0.78B secured loan.

IREN IREN

0.3 GW IT delivered in 2026 and 0.8 GW IT cumulative in 2027; more than 5 GW of secured power; no stated pace after 2027.

Capex: FY27 (Jul 2026–Jun 2027) guided at $25–30B. Calendar 2026 ≈ $3.3B H1 actual plus about half of FY27 ≈ $16B; calendar 2027 ≈ $25.5B. 2028–30 assumes 0.5 GW IT a year at about $43B per GW IT.
Prepayments at 33% of capex: recent prepays fund 45–55% of GPU capex, and GPUs are about two-thirds of the total.
Cash flow: about $1.4B of revenue in calendar 2026, then about $13B per GW-year of IT load ($4B of contracted run rate on 0.3 GW). EBITDA margin 35% in 2026, 60–65% after (owned sites, cheap power). 5.5% cash interest.
2026 raised: $6.45B secured GPU financing, $3.0B converts, about $2.5B equity.

Lambda private

3 GW of compute under management by 2030 (private; no capex disclosure).

Capex: backlog went from $15B in June to $50B in September, largely one AI lab, so the path is front-loaded: $6B / $13B / $17B / $19B / $18.5B at about $25B per GW. Prepayments assumed at 10% of capex.
Cash flow: $1.6B of revenue in 2026 (reported above $1.5B), then about $9B per GW-year. EBITDA margin 30% rising to 45%, lower than owners of their own sites because colocation rent is an operating cost. 7% cash interest.
2026 raised: $2.9B secured (August and October facilities rated investment grade), plus up to $4B of equity in progress.

Nscale private

$103.4B contracted (Microsoft up to $43.8B; Anthropic up to $44.6B for 460 MW at Monarch, WV); 1.37 GW active and contracted; Monarch to 2 GW by H1 2028.

Capex, from the S-1: $3.2B in H1 2026 plus $24B of equipment and $3.5B of construction committed, payable mainly in 2026–27, so about $12B in 2026 and $20B in 2027. 2028 covers the Anthropic and Monarch build (~$15B); 2029–30 assumed at $8–9B a year.
Prepayments average about 23% of contract value at signing; deferred revenue went from $2.0B to $6.5B in H1, so 2026 is set at $6B and later years at 30% of capex.
Cash flow: revenue from the $103.4B of contracts as they deliver, about $0.75B / $5B / $11B / $16B / $18B. EBITDA margin −50% in 2026 (H1: −142%), 35% in 2027, 50–55% after. 6.5% cash interest. Early losses add to the external need.
The S-1 says no binding financing is in place yet for the Anthropic contracts.

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