OpenAI and Anthropic revenue
On our estimates, Anthropic is running at about $82B of annualized revenue and OpenAI at about $54B. Our base case has them at $100B and $73B at the end of 2026, and $215B and $240B at the end of 2027.
Annualized revenue: a month’s revenue × 12. Ranges are 80%. Each company on its own accounting: Anthropic counts sales through cloud marketplaces in full, OpenAI only its share, so Anthropic’s figures are about 7.5% higher than OpenAI’s method would give.
Run-rates since 2024, and where they’re heading
Annualized revenue, log scale. Solid lines are our estimate, fitted to every reported figure; the thinner stretch at the end is since each company’s last report, which for Anthropic also uses spend through OpenRouter. Dashed lines are the base case and shading its 80% range.
Data
| Month end | Anthropic | 80% range | OpenAI | 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 (latest) | $82B | $69–98B | $54B | $50–59B |
| Oct 2026 | $85B | $71–100B | $57B | $52–62B |
| Nov 2026 | $92B | $77–110B | $64B | $59–70B |
| Dec 2026 | $100B | $83–120B | $73B | $67–78B |
| Jan 2027 | $110B | $89–135B | $82B | $76–90B |
| Feb 2027 | $115B | $94–145B | $91B | $83–105B |
| Mar 2027 | $125B | $100–160B | $105B | $91–120B |
| Apr 2027 | $135B | $105–170B | $115B | $98–140B |
| May 2027 | $145B | $110–190B | $125B | $105–160B |
| Jun 2027 | $150B | $115–205B | $140B | $115–180B |
| Jul 2027 | $160B | $120–220B | $155B | $120–210B |
| Aug 2027 | $170B | $125–240B | $170B | $130–240B |
| Sep 2027 | $185B | $130–260B | $185B | $135–270B |
| Oct 2027 | $195B | $135–280B | $205B | $145–305B |
| Nov 2027 | $205B | $140–305B | $220B | $150–345B |
| Dec 2027 | $215B | $145–330B | $240B | $160–385B |
Full history and forecast: openai-anthropic-run-rate.csv
Where today’s numbers come from
Neither company reports its run-rate on a schedule. Figures arrive through funding announcements, investor updates and press reports. We fit one smooth path through each company’s figures, 40 of them so far; it misses the typical Anthropic figure by 3% and the typical OpenAI figure by 1%. Anthropic’s last figure was Q3 2026 revenue of $16.8B, published Oct 14, 2026 (Financial Times, via The Next Web). OpenAI’s was a run-rate of $50B, published Oct 8, 2026 (Reuters, via The Standard).
Anthropic between reports. Spend on Anthropic’s models through OpenRouter has been 1.7%–2.5% of its revenue in the quarters Anthropic has reported. We divide every four-week stretch of that spend since its last reported quarter by the latest quarter’s ratio, 1.70%, and count the result as one more figure, give or take 20%. Since that quarter ended, OpenRouter reads $95B (Oct 1–20); with the trend from Anthropic’s reports, that gives $82B. Tested on the 15 run-rates and quarterly revenue figures reported for Anthropic since May 2025, each estimated the day before it came out, this missed by 8% at the median, against 17% from Anthropic’s reports alone, and came in low 10 times out of 15. The two settings were chosen on those same figures, so expect less of a gain from here.
OpenAI between reports. Most of OpenAI’s revenue is ChatGPT and direct enterprise sales that OpenRouter doesn’t see, so its estimate moves only when new figures come out. Until then it follows a path toward OpenAI’s own target, a run-rate of at least $70B by December 2026 (Bloomberg, via Bloomberg Línea, Oct 9, 2026). OpenAI has come in about 3% above its near-term targets on average, so the path aims at about $72B.
What OpenRouter says about Anthropic
Spend on Anthropic’s models through OpenRouter over the past year, annualized and divided by 1.70%, its ratio to Anthropic’s revenue in the latest reported quarter, against our estimate and reported figures. Log scale. The heavy segment is the reading the model uses since that quarter. Counting quarters where Anthropic’s revenue is our estimate, the ratio has ranged from 1.6% to 4.2% since 2025.
Quarter by quarter
| Quarter | Spend through OpenRouter | Anthropic revenue | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | $14M | $328M (our estimate) | 4.21% |
| 2025Q2 | $20M | $787M | 2.50% |
| 2025Q3 | $30M | $1.37B (our estimate) | 2.21% |
| 2025Q4 | $32M | $2.04B (our estimate) | 1.56% |
| 2026Q1 | $84M | $4.73B | 1.77% |
| 2026Q2 | $238M | $11.6B | 2.05% |
| 2026Q3 | $285M | $16.8B | 1.70% |
Daily tokens and estimated spend: openrouter-daily.csv
How the estimate did, figure by figure
| Published | Figure | Reported | Estimate the day before | Reports only |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Q3 2026 revenue | $16.8B | $15.5B | $17.8B |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Run-rate, Jul 31 | $65B | $70.7B | $83.4B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Q2 2026 revenue | $11.6B | $12.6B | $13.8B |
| May 28, 2026 | Run-rate, May 7 | $47B | $44.5B | $44.5B |
| May 20, 2026 | Q1 2026 revenue | $4.73B | $3.96B | $3.98B |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Run-rate, Apr 29 | $40B | $41B | $41.2B |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Run-rate, Apr 6 | $30B | $27.3B | $26.1B |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Run-rate, Feb 28 | $19B | $16.2B | $15.7B |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Run-rate, Feb 12 | $14B | $12.4B | $10.4B |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Run-rate, Dec 31 | $9B | $10.2B | $9.75B |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Run-rate, Oct 15 | $7B | $7.19B | $9.06B |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Run-rate, Jul 31 | $5B | $4.79B | $5.01B |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Run-rate, Jul 1 | $4B | $3.7B | $3.83B |
| May 30, 2025 | Run-rate, May 31 | $3B | $2.73B | $3.8B |
| May 16, 2025 | Run-rate, Mar 31 | $2B | $1.52B | $1.58B |
Tokens and dollars through OpenRouter
Seven-day averages, log scale. Over the last four weeks Anthropic’s models took 36% of the money spent through OpenRouter on 5% of its tokens, and OpenAI’s took 24% on 9%. OpenAI’s open-weight models, which other companies serve, are under everyone else. Totals, the US–China split and forecasts are in the OpenRouter tracker.
How the forecast works
Each forecast starts from today’s estimate and assumes growth halves every 18 months, the rule in pack 008. For Anthropic, growth starts at the pace of the last three months, 9% a month. For OpenAI, the path to December 2026 bends toward its target; after that, growth starts at the path’s pace over its last three months, 13% a month. The ranges vary today’s level, the starting growth by a quarter either way and the half-life from 6 months to 4½ years.
The half-life decides 2027. Rules like this one have mostly been too low on these two companies, because both kept speeding up through 2026; pack 008 tests them against every figure published since 2024. Even so, each company would have to add more run-rate in 2027 than in 2026: about $115B for Anthropic, against $90B in 2026, and $165B for OpenAI, against $52B.
| Growth halves every | Anthropic, Dec 2027 | OpenAI, Dec 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 months | $150B | $165B |
| 12 months | $190B | $215B |
| 18 months (base) | $215B | $240B |
| 3 years | $245B | $275B |
| Never | $285B | $320B |
Compared with pack 008. Pack 008, published the day the tracker started, put Anthropic at $265B and OpenAI at $230B in December 2027. For OpenAI the tracker lands close to that. For Anthropic, pack 008 applied the same rule to growth of about 10% a month late in 2026 and took the midpoint of that and the OpenRouter view below, with Anthropic’s share of OpenRouter settling at 30%. The tracker applies the rule to the growth of the last three months, 9% a month, and shows the OpenRouter view separately, because it moves too much from week to week to average in every day.
What OpenRouter’s growth would imply
Spend through OpenRouter grew about 15% a month over the last three months, comparing four-week averages, down from 31% in the three before. If that growth halves every 6 months, as in pack 007, OpenRouter spend is 3.0× today’s by December 2027. Anthropic’s share of it is 36%, down from 60% at the end of January 2026.
| If Anthropic’s share of OpenRouter… | Dec 2026 | Dec 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| holds at 36% | $110B | $245B |
| falls at half its pace since January | $105B | $160B |
| keeps falling at that pace | $98B | $105B |
| Base case (Anthropic’s own trend) | $100B | $215B |
Latest reported figures
Most recent first, on each company’s own accounting. Every figure, with its source: openai-anthropic-reported.csv
| Published | Company | Figure | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Anthropic | Run-rate, Oct 15not used | $74B | SemiAnalysis, via Implicator |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Anthropic | Q3 2026 revenue | $16.8B | Financial Times, via The Next Web |
| Oct 8, 2026 | OpenAI | Run-rate, Sep 30 | $50B | Reuters, via The Standard |
| Oct 8, 2026 | OpenAI | Run-rate, Jun 30 | $29B | The Information, via The Next Web |
| Sep 29, 2026 | OpenAI | Run-rate, Sep 30not used | $70B | Axios |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Anthropic | 2024 revenue | $386M | Reuters, via TradingKey |
| Aug 18, 2026 | OpenAI | Q2 2026 revenue | $6.7B | Wall Street Journal, via AI Weekly |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Anthropic | Run-rate, Jul 31 | $65B | Bloomberg, via Bloomberg Government |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Anthropic | Q2 2026 revenue | $11.6B | Reuters, via BusinessDay |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Anthropic | Q2 2025 revenue | $787M | Bloomberg, via Bloomberg Government |
| Aug 13, 2026 | OpenAI | Run-rate, Aug 12 | $40B | Bloomberg, via investingLive |
| Jun 17, 2026 | OpenAI | Q1 2026 revenue | $5.7B | The Information, via The Next Web |
Method
Reported figures. Run-rates, quarterly revenue and annual revenue from company statements and named outlets, each dated to the period it describes. Third-party estimates and figures on a different accounting basis are shown but not fitted. The list starts from pack 008 and is updated as new figures come out.
The path. Log run-rate on a daily grid, fitted to every figure at once: a run-rate is the path’s value on its date, quarterly or annual revenue is the path’s average over the period. A penalty on changes in growth keeps the path smooth (the maximum-likelihood path of a local linear trend model). Quarterly and annual revenue get the most weight, then run-rates stated by the companies, then run-rates reported by the press, then figures derived from reported changes.
OpenRouter. Daily tokens for the 50 biggest models plus the rest, from OpenRouter’s rankings dataset. Each model’s tokens are priced at its list price, assuming 10% are output and half of input is billed at cached rates, as in pack 007. Prices have been recorded daily since October 19, 2026; before that, each model is at the first price we recorded, retired models at their last list price, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Luna and Sol at their launch prices until their July and August cuts, and the long tail at the day’s average paid price. Free and pre-release models count at $0; OpenAI’s open-weight models, which other companies serve, are left out of OpenAI. For Anthropic, spend in each four-week stretch since its last reported quarter is divided by the latest quarter’s ratio of OpenRouter spend to revenue and enters the fit with an error of 20%. Both settings come from re-estimating each of those Anthropic figures as of the day before it was published, using only figures published by then and OpenRouter data through the day before: the latest quarter’s ratio did better than an average of the last two to four, and an error of 20% gave the smallest average miss of the values tried, from 10% to 50%.
Forecast. Two year-ends, this year’s and next, rolling forward each January. Growth halves every 18 months: g(t) = g₀ × 2−t/18. For Anthropic, g₀ is the growth of the fitted path over the last three months. For OpenAI, its run-rate target enters the fit as one more figure on its date, scaled by how its targets made within a year of their date turned out and weighted at ±6%, until figures for that month are published; g₀ is the path’s growth over the three months to that date, and the range up to it comes from the fit, which that ±6% dominates. Other ranges are the 10th and 90th percentiles of 20,000 draws of the starting level, starting growth (±25%) and half-life (6 to 54 months). The OpenRouter scenarios grow today’s Anthropic estimate with total OpenRouter spend on pack 007’s path (the last three months’ growth, halving every six months) and move Anthropic’s share as labeled.
Updates. OpenRouter data is pulled and the model re-run twice a day; the date at the top is the last run. New reported figures are added when they are published.
Changes. Oct 19, 2026: Tracker started, with the 44 figures collected for pack 008 and OpenRouter data from January 2025.
Source for token data: OpenRouter (openrouter.ai/rankings), as of 2026-10-21 12:00 UTC. Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Spend, run-rates and forecasts are our estimates. Not investment advice.