001Who pays for the AI buildout?
On Street consensus numbers, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta need about $438B of debt or equity over 2026–30 — 8% of capex. The rest comes out of operating cash flow.
Capex by year, and how it gets paid for
Full bar = capex. Orange is what operating cash flow can’t cover. The black tick marks operating cash flow — above the bar is a cushion.
Cumulative 2026–30 by company
$B. Dividends and buybacks aren't deducted, so the true need is larger where payouts continue.
| Company | Capex | Cash-flow funded | Debt / equity | Share | Peak gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | $1.15T | $1.15T | $0B | 0% | — |
| Alphabet | $1.53T | $1.36T | $165B | 11% | 2027 |
| Amazon | $1.5T | $1.39T | $110B | 7% | 2026 |
| Meta | $1.11T | $945B | $163B | 15% | 2028 |
| All four | $5.29T | $4.85T | $438B | 8% | 2027 |
The gap is real, but small against the balance sheets
Microsoft funds everything from cash flow on every path. Alphabet ($165B), Meta ($163B) and Amazon ($110B) run gaps concentrated in 2027–28, and some of that is already pre-funded — Alphabet raised $84.75B of equity in June, and all three have issued bonds. Moving to management’s stated targets adds only about $36B: their own targets already roughly match Street numbers.
Why there’s no prepay line
These four are the funding source. They invest in the labs, and the labs commit that money back as cloud spend. None of them reports capex-linked customer prepayments. That changes if a cash-rich lab — after an IPO, say — starts paying hyperscalers up front; that would be worth watching.
Where Oracle and SpaceX went
Both build at hyperscaler scale but fund like something in between: capex far above cash flow, customer prepays or chip financing, concentrated lab customers, BBB-area credit. They have their own pack: The leveraged middle.
What this is anchored on
Guidance, stated targets and analyst estimates as of October 16, 2026.
| Ticker | Data point | Source |
|---|---|---|
| MSFT | CY26 capex incl. finance leases ~$175B (was ~$190B before lease-accounting change); FY27 to grow YoY; FY26 OCF $183B | Microsoft FY26 Q4 call, Jul 29 2026 |
| MSFT | $329B of data-center leases signed but not yet commenced (operating leases, outside capex) | Microsoft FY26 10-K |
| GOOGL | 2026 capex $195–205B; 2027 to rise 'significantly'; Q2 FCF −$5.9B (first negative since IPO) | Alphabet Q2 2026 results, Jul 2026 |
| GOOGL | $84.75B equity raise (Jun 2026) incl. $40B ATM from Q3; LT debt $98.2B at Jun 30 | Alphabet release Jun 3 2026; Q2 balance sheet |
| AMZN | 2026 cash capex ~$220B; goal to double power capacity by end-2027 vs 2025; TTM FCF −$7.6B | Amazon Q2 2026 call, Jul 30 2026 |
| META | 2026 capex $130–145B; 'at least $600B' US infra spend through 2028; ~14 GW compute target | Meta Q2 2026; Zuckerberg (Sep 2025); Citi |
| ALL | 2027 Street capex: Citi GOOGL $308B / META $205B / AMZN $288B; Morgan Stanley META $225B→$250B (2028), AMZN $308B→$318B | Citi Jul 2026; Morgan Stanley Sep 2026 |
Method
Capex is calendar-year. 2026 is latest company guidance at midpoints (Microsoft on its post-lease-change basis). 2027–28 blend Citi, Morgan Stanley and LSEG consensus; 2029–30 assume growth flattening toward 2030, as consensus implies. “Stated targets” uses paths that hit what management has said: Meta’s $600B-through-2028 pledge and Amazon’s doubled power by end-2027. Microsoft and Alphabet have no quantified target beyond “grow”, so they match Street.
Operating cash flow is our estimate, triangulated from FY26 actuals and published 2027 FCF estimates (S&P, MarketScreener, BofA, TIKR); 2029–30 are extrapolated. Each year, cash flow covers capex up to its level; a surplus isn’t carried into the next year.
Not in capex: operating leases signed but not commenced — $329B Microsoft, ~$279B Meta, $137B Amazon, $85B Alphabet — a second, off-balance-sheet funding channel.