W.007Big Tech’s leases that haven’t started yet rose $213B in a quarter
Leases that Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle have signed but not yet started reached $1.30T in their latest filings, up $213B in one quarter. That is 2.4× the $547B of debt on their balance sheets. Microsoft’s were 10 times its debt at September 30. Nikkei Asia counts $3.2T once purchase commitments are added.
Every company’s total rose in the quarter; Meta’s rose most
Leases signed but not yet commenced, as each company disclosed them, $B: the total at the previous quarter end and the rise to the latest. Latest is September 30, 2026; Oracle’s is August 31, against May 31.
Data
| Company | Previous | Latest | Change | Commencing | Terms |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | $329.1B | $364.6B | +$35.5B | fiscal 2027 to fiscal 2034 | 1 to 20 years |
| Meta | $279.0B | $355.7B | +$76.7B | the rest of 2026 to 2036 | more than 1 year to 30 years |
| Oracle | $260.0B | $288.0B | +$28.0B | fiscal Q2 2027 to fiscal 2029 | 15 to 19 years |
| Amazon | $137.2B | $164.9B | +$27.7B | not stated ($114.8B of payments due after 2030) | not stated |
| Alphabet | $85.2B | $130.5B | +$45.3B | 2026 to 2031 | 1 to 26 years |
| Total | $1090.5B | $1303.8B | +$213.2B |
What the footnotes count
A lease that hasn’t commenced is a signed contract for a building, usually a data center, that the tenant doesn’t control yet. Under U.S. accounting it goes on the balance sheet when the lease commences, generally when the landlord makes the space available; until then it appears as one sentence or one table row in the notes. The five companies disclosed $1.30T of them in their latest filings, against $1.09T a quarter earlier. Meta added $76.7B, Alphabet $45.3B and Microsoft $35.5B.
Nikkei Asia’s $3.2T is a wider count. As reported, it adds multi-year purchase commitments for chips, servers and data center capacity to future lease obligations, and compares the total with about $1.65T in its July count, a rise of 94% by that arithmetic; Nikkei described it as about 90%. Its per-company breakdown wasn’t available for this post, so this post counts only the one line all five disclose the same way. Purchase commitments are larger and less comparable: Alphabet reported $924.4B, Meta $454.5B, Oracle $34.2B; Microsoft reports its total only once a year.
The leases are due to start between now and the mid-2030s, with maximum terms of 19 to 30 years. Oracle’s are expected to commence between its fiscal second quarter of 2027 and fiscal 2029, on terms of 15 to 19 years. Microsoft’s are to commence through fiscal 2034, and it says some depend on contractual conditions being met. Meta’s run to 30 years. Amazon’s table puts $114.8B of the $164.9B in payments due after 2030.
Microsoft’s signed leases were ten times its debt at September 30
Leases not yet commenced (solid) and debt on the balance sheet (grey), $B, at the latest quarter end. The multiple is leases divided by debt. Debt is total debt for Microsoft, long-term debt for Alphabet and Meta, and long-term debt with its current portion for Amazon and Oracle. Microsoft’s figure is before the $25B of notes it sold on October 29.
Meta, six months apart
Meta’s long-term debt and two lines from its notes, $B: at March 31, 2026 (grey) and the rise to September 30. Contractual commitments are non-cancelable purchases, mostly third-party cloud capacity, servers, network equipment and data center energy.
Both off-balance-sheet lines nearly doubled in six months, +95% and +91%, while debt rose $22.2B. Adding up to $14.7B of contingent cloud capacity and up to $41.5B of residual value guarantees on its Louisiana and Texas data center ventures gives $866.5B, 10.7× its long-term debt. Meta says payments under the guarantees are not probable and records no liability for them.
Why it matters
Signed leases are binding before they start. When one commences, it moves onto the balance sheet as a lease liability and a right-of-use asset. The $213B the five added in one quarter is about 39% of all the debt they carry. For Amazon and Alphabet the signed leases are about the size of their debt; for Oracle, Meta and Microsoft they are 2.3× to 10.3× it.
Leases are also how the buildout is being paid for without borrowing in the company’s own name. A developer or a joint venture raises the money to build, and the tenant signs a long lease. Meta’s Louisiana venture, 80% owned by funds managed by Blue Owl according to press reports, is the best-known case. Alphabet has executed backstops of partners’ data center lease and, in some cases, energy payments with a notional maximum of $48B, from $16.9B at the end of 2025, and has committed $27.7B more to future backstops, according to reports on its 10-Q by The Next Web and Winbuzzer.
What this changes on 06.ai
- Pack lead (002, who pays for the AI buildout): the pack’s “not in capex” line cites June figures ($329B Microsoft, ~$279B Meta, $137B Amazon, $85B Alphabet). The September filings raise those to $365B, $356B, $165B and $131B, and Oracle’s to $288B at August 31: $1.30T in all.
- Series lead: leases not yet commenced, by company and quarter, beside capex and debt. It is the one off-balance-sheet line all five disclose the same way, and it rose +20% in a quarter.
Sources and method
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Trigger | Off-balance-sheet AI obligations at the five companies about $3.2T, up about 90% in six months; earlier count about $1.65T | Nikkei Asia, Nov 3 (via AI Weekly) |
| Earlier count | About $1.65T across the same five companies | AI Weekly, Jul 24 |
| Microsoft | Leases, primarily for datacenters, not yet commenced: $364.6B at Sep 30, commencing fiscal 2027 to 2034, terms of 1 to 20 years; some subject to contractual conditions (10-Q, quoted) | TED Magazine, Oct 29 |
| Microsoft | 10-Q for the quarter to Sep 30, 2026 | SEC EDGAR |
| Microsoft | Total debt $35,481M at Sep 30, 2026, before a $25B note offering | Microsoft 424B2, Oct 29 |
| Meta | Leases not yet commenced ~$355.73B; non-cancelable commitments $454.52B ($45.85B due in 2026, $121.41B in 2027); cloud capacity up to $14.72B; ventures’ maximum residual value guarantees $41.493B; long-term debt $80.922B | Meta 10-Q, Sep 30 |
| Meta | Leases not yet commenced $182.88B; commitments $237.67B; long-term debt $58.748B | Meta 10-Q, Mar 31 |
| June quarter | Leases not yet commenced: Alphabet $85.2B, Meta $278.99B, Microsoft $329.1B (Jun 30); Oracle $260B (May 31) | Magica, on the filings, Aug 5 |
| Oracle | $288B of additional lease commitments, substantially all data centers, commencing fiscal Q2 2027 to fiscal 2029, 15 to 19 years; notes payable and borrowings $125.337B; unconditional purchase obligations $34.15B | Oracle 10-Q, Aug 31 |
| Amazon | Leases not yet commenced $164.922B ($114.8B after 2030); property and equipment $159.64B; purchase obligations $94.759B; long-term debt $173.125B plus $6.827B current | Amazon 10-Q, Sep 30 (copy on Fortune) |
| Amazon | Leases not yet commenced at Jun 30 by period: $4,018M, $11,732M, $9,278M, $9,483M, $9,227M, $93,476M | Amazon 10-Q, Jun 30 |
| Alphabet | Leases not yet commenced $130.5B, commencing 2026 to 2031, terms 1 to 26 years; purchase commitments $924.4B, $213.4B within 12 months; executed data center and energy backstops, notional maximum $48B (from $16.9B at end-2025); long-term debt $125.1B | The Next Web, on the 10-Q |
| Alphabet | A further $27.7B commitment to establish future backstops | Winbuzzer, Oct 30 |
Leases not yet commenced are as each company disclosed them in its latest 10-Q (Oracle: quarter to August 31, 2026) and the filing before. Amazon’s June figure is the sum of its table’s periods: $4,018M + $11,732M + $9,278M + $9,483M + $9,227M + $93,476M = $137,214M. Alphabet’s $130.5B excludes $21.9B of equity funding that some reports added to reach $152B. The totals, from the unrounded figures, are $364.6B + $355.73B + $288B + $164.922B + $130.5B = $1,303.8B, and $329.1B + $278.99B + $260B + $137.214B + $85.2B = $1,090.5B, so the quarter’s change is a net $213.2B: new signings less leases that commenced and left the line. Alphabet’s June figure excludes a separate $5.8B short-term lease that began in the third quarter.
Debt is as described under the chart: Microsoft $35.5B, Meta $80.9B, Oracle $125.3B, Amazon $180.0B, Alphabet $125.1B, total $546.8B; it excludes recognized lease liabilities. Meta’s total outside the balance sheet adds leases not yet commenced, non-cancelable commitments, contingent cloud capacity and maximum residual value guarantees: $355.7B + $454.5B + $14.7B + $41.5B = $866.5B; the last two are maximums, not expected payments. Nikkei’s change is $3.20T ÷ $1.65T − 1 = 93.9%. Nikkei’s article itself could not be read for this post; its figures are as reported by AI Weekly.
Wire reports are written within hours of the news, on a six-hour schedule. Each lists its sources and shows the arithmetic behind its figures. Not investment advice.