W.032Vistra’s first 2027 guidance puts EBITDA 11% above 2026. Its Texas hedges realize $12.84 a megawatt-hour over the hub price
Vistra’s third-quarter adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations rose 50% to $2.38B, and its Texas segment earned $1.23B of it. Its first guidance for 2027 is $7.7B to $8.5B, 11% above the new 2026 midpoint, with about 98% of 2027 generation already hedged. In Texas those hedges realize $51.34 a megawatt-hour, $12.84 above the hub price; in the East they realize $8.66 below it. The second half of its Comanche Peak nuclear plant is still not contracted.
Texas carried the quarter
Texas earned 52% of the quarter’s EBITDA. Vistra’s adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations was $2.38B in the three months to September, against $1.58B a year earlier. The Texas segment rose 57% to $1,227 million and the East, mostly PJM, 36% to $979 million. Net income was $1,140 million, including an unrealized hedging gain of $559 million. The third quarter includes the Texas summer; according to a machine-generated transcript of the call, chief executive Jim Burke said Texas is just under 40% of generation earnings, a figure that does not specify the period. Vistra’s slides list 20,604 MW of its 49,105 MW fleet in ERCOT, 42%.
The guidance moved up at the bottom. Vistra narrowed 2026 guidance to $7.1B to $7.5B, raising the low end by $300 million and cutting the high end by $100 million, and said it expects to finish above the midpoint of its original range for a fifth consecutive year. For 2027 it initiated guidance of $7.7B to $8.5B, based on market curves as of November 2. The midpoint, $8.1B, is 11.0% above 2026’s $7.3B and 37% above 2025’s actual $5.91B. A year ago Vistra had published a 2027 “midpoint opportunity” of $7.4B to $7.8B that it said was not guidance and that predated its purchase of the Cogentrix plants and its Meta power contracts; the slides say the new range reflects Cogentrix and the first phase of the Meta contract. Free cash flow before growth is guided at $4.3B to $5.1B for 2027, 4.4% above the 2026 midpoint. On November 3 Talen guided its 2027 EBITDA 26% above 2026 at the midpoints.
Texas EBITDA rose 57% on a year earlier
Vistra adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations by segment, $ millions: third quarter 2025 (grey) and third quarter 2026. Corporate and eliminations, −$22M and −$2M, are left out; the segments shown sum to $2,380M and $1,603M.
Data
| Segment | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 784 | 1,227 | 56.5% |
| East | 719 | 979 | 36.2% |
| Retail | 37 | 98 | 164.9% |
| West | 63 | 76 | 20.6% |
| Corp. & elims | -22 | -2 | — |
| Ongoing operations | 1,581 | 2,378 | 50.4% |
2027 guidance sits above last year’s “opportunity”
Vistra adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations, $ billions: 2025 actual, and each guidance range by the date issued, solid to the low end and outlined to the high end. The 2027 “opportunity” was published in November 2025, was not guidance, and excluded Cogentrix and Meta; the 2027 guidance includes them.
What the hedges lock in
Most of 2027 is already sold. Vistra reported about 98% of expected 2027 generation hedged at October 30, up from about 70% a year earlier, and about 78% of 2028. Its slides price the 2027 hedges. In Texas the realized price is $51.34 per megawatt-hour, $12.84 above the around-the-clock hub price of $38.50; Vistra puts the total difference at $1,365 million. In the East it is $52.69, $8.66 below the hub price of $61.34, a difference of −$1,140 million. The difference has two parts, the slides show: the value of hedges against current market prices ($754 million in Texas; −$1,114 million in the East) and a premium for dispatch shape, the basis between plants and hubs and expected extra sales ($611 million; −$26 million). The 2027 forward at ERCOT North Hub was $38.46 on October 30 and $44.87 for 2028; at PJM West it was $70.75 and $75.41. Burke said the outlook assumes no recovery in ERCOT prices, according to the transcript.
Data centers are mostly upside not yet in the numbers. Vistra’s 20-year deal to sell 1,200 MW of the 2,400 MW Comanche Peak nuclear plant, to Amazon, was expected when announced to start delivering in the fourth quarter of 2027 and is to reach full capacity in 2032; the slides list it as upside to Vistra’s 2027–2030 target for growth in free cash flow per share. On the call, according to the transcript, management said the second part of Comanche Peak is still not contracted, that customer conversations had been consistent throughout, and that a statewide moratorium of the kind Texas governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has called for would likely need legislative action. The quarter’s one new large-load contract was a 20-year, 207 MW power purchase agreement with New Era Energy & Digital, which plans a data center in the Permian Basin, from Vistra’s Odessa gas plant. Vistra added $1.5 billion to its buyback, leaving about $2.5 billion to use by the end of 2028. Its shares fell 13.5% on November 4 after the midterm results and rose about 5% before the open on November 6, Yahoo Finance reported.
2027 is now hedged 98%
Share of Vistra’s expected generation hedged, %, by the date each release gave it: 2027 and 2028. The November 2025 release gave no 2028 figure.
Texas hedges price above the hub; the East’s below
Vistra’s 2027 hedged generation, $ per MWh, at October 30, 2026, from its slides: the around-the-clock hub price (grey) and the difference Vistra expects to realize over it (Texas, total), or for the East the realized price with the discount to the hub outlined. Texas hubs are weighted 90% North, 10% West; the East blends several PJM, New England, MISO and New York hubs. Generation only, excluding retail.
Data
| 2027 | Hub price | Difference from hub | Realized | Total difference, $M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | $38.50 | +$12.84 | $51.34 | 1,365 |
| East | $61.34 | −$8.66 | $52.69 | -1,140 |
| Total | $51.03 | +$1.40 | $52.42 | 337 |
What this changes on 06.ai
- Texas data center risk pack: Vistra’s 2027 guidance assumes forward ERCOT prices and, by management’s account, customer conversations consistent through the election; a pack scenario with a statewide moratorium could use Vistra’s Texas hedge book (98% of 2027 at $51.34/MWh) as the near-term floor and Comanche Peak’s uncontracted half as the exposed piece.
- Series lead: hedged share and hedged realized price by region, which Vistra and Talen give every quarter, would track how much of independent power producers’ next-year earnings are already priced.
Sources and method
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | Net income $1,140M ($652M); ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA $2,378M ($1,581M); 2026 guidance $7.1–7.5B EBITDA, $4.3–4.7B FCFbG; 2027 guidance $7.7–8.5B and $4.3–5.1B; hedged about 100% (2026), 98% (2027), 78% (2028) at Oct 30; 207 MW, 20-year PPA with New Era Energy & Digital at Odessa; $1.5B added to buybacks, about $2.5B left; about 339M shares | Vistra Q3 release, Nov 6 |
| Q3 2026 | Segment EBITDA; 2027 hedged prices by region and hub prices; forwards at Oct 30; fleet 20,604 MW in ERCOT of 49,105 MW; guidance on curves as of Nov 2, 2026; 2027 reflects Cogentrix and the first phase of the Meta PPA | Vistra Q3 2026 results presentation |
| Call | Second part of Comanche Peak not yet contracted; outlook assumes no ERCOT price recovery; customer conversations consistent throughout; Texas just under 40% of generation earnings | Q3 call transcript (machine-generated), 6ix |
| 2026 initial | 2026 guidance initiated: EBITDA $6.8–7.6B, FCFbG $3.925–4.725B; 2027 midpoint opportunity $7.4–7.8B; 2027 about 70% hedged | Vistra Q3 2025 release (8-K), Nov 6, 2025 |
| 2025 actual | Ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA $5,912M, FCFbG $3,592M; 2027 about 84%, 2028 about 58% hedged | Vistra Q4 2025 release, Feb 26 |
| Q1 2026 | Guidance reaffirmed; 2027 about 89%, 2028 about 65% hedged | Vistra Q1 release (8-K), May 7 |
| Q2 2026 | Guidance reaffirmed; 2027 about 94%, 2028 about 72% hedged | Vistra Q2 release (8-K), Aug 7 |
| Comanche Peak | 20-year deal for 1,200 MW with a large investment-grade company, ramping to full capacity by 2032 | Yahoo Finance, Sep 29, 2025 |
| Buyers | Amazon named as the Comanche Peak buyer; Meta PPAs for more than 2,600 MW from PJM nuclear plants | World Nuclear News, Feb 27 |
| Odessa | 20-year agreement for 200 MW minimum, up to 207 MW, from Vistra’s Odessa plant for the Texas Critical Data Center in the Permian Basin | New Era Energy & Digital release (8-K), Sep 21 |
| Talen | 2026 adjusted EBITDA $2.05–2.2B; 2027 $2.5–2.85B | Talen Q3 release (8-K), Nov 3 |
| Shares | Down 13.5% on Nov 4 after the midterm results; KeyBanc downgrade | Yahoo Finance, Nov 4 |
Growth: ongoing EBITDA 2,378 ÷ 1,581 − 1 = 50.4%; Texas 1,227 ÷ 784 − 1 = 56.5%; East 979 ÷ 719 − 1 = 36.2%. Texas share: 1,227 ÷ 2,378 = 51.6%. ERCOT share of fleet: 20,604 ÷ 49,105 = 42.0%.
Guidance: midpoints are the average of each range. 2027 $8.1B ÷ 2026 $7.3B − 1 = 11.0%; ÷ 2025 actual $5.912B − 1 = 37.0%. 2026 changes: low end $6.8B → $7.1B, high end $7.6B → $7.5B. Free cash flow before growth: $4.70B ÷ $4.50B − 1 = 4.4%. Talen: $2.675B ÷ $2.125B − 1 = 25.9%. Prices are Vistra’s: realized = hub price + premium (e.g. Texas $38.50 + $12.84 = $51.34). Call remarks come from a machine-generated transcript and are attributed as such.
Wire reports are written within hours of the news, on a six-hour schedule. Each lists its sources and shows the arithmetic behind its figures. Not investment advice.