W.043Musk says SpaceX is on track for a yearly revenue rate above $100B in December, 1.7 times its third-quarter pace. Ron Baron put Terafab at $1T
Speaking by video at the Baron Investment Conference on November 6, Elon Musk said SpaceX is tracking to an annual revenue rate above $100B in December and guessed at more than $500B a year later. SpaceX sold $14.6B in the third quarter, a $58.3B yearly pace, and guided its first quarter of 2027 to $33–37B. Asked about Ron Baron’s $1T price for Terafab, Musk said the money would not be needed at once; its only official cost is a first phase of more than $16.8B.
What Musk said
Musk said SpaceX is on track for a yearly revenue rate above $100B in December. Speaking by video to Baron Capital’s investor conference on November 6, he said fourth-quarter revenue would probably be about 70% above the third quarter’s, called more than $500B a year by December 2027 “my best guess”, according to TeslaNorth’s recap, and put the odds of $1T at about 2%. These are Musk’s statements at an investor event, not company guidance; SpaceX’s results release contains no revenue outlook. The $100B figure is not new: SpaceX said in August that its cloud agreements put it on track for $100B of annual recurring revenue by the end of 2026.
The third quarter would have to grow by about 72% to get there. A $100B yearly rate is $25B a quarter. SpaceX reported $14.57B of revenue for the quarter to September 30, 161% more than a year before and 87% more than in the second quarter; at that pace it sells $58.3B a year. Musk’s 70% would take the fourth quarter to about $24.8B, or $99.1B a year. On October 20 SpaceX’s chief financial officer guided first-quarter 2027 revenue to $33–37B, a yearly pace of $132–148B.
AI revenue passed Starlink’s in the third quarter
SpaceX revenue by quarter, $ billions, stacked by segment: Connectivity (Starlink), Space (launch and other), and Super Intelligence, the segment that holds xAI (Grok and X), AI cloud services and, since August, Cursor. Q1 2026 is our derivation from nine-month and quarterly totals. The dashed fourth-quarter bar is Q3 × 1.7, Musk’s November 6 estimate, not company guidance. The dashed line is $25B, a quarter at a $100B yearly rate.
Where the growth is
Nearly all of it is the AI segment. Super Intelligence revenue rose from $2.56B in the second quarter to $7.56B in the third, up 195%, and was 52% of the total. Connectivity, mostly Starlink, grew 69% in a year, to $5.25B. The quarter was SpaceX’s first profitable one as a public company, with $4.40B of net income; SpaceQ reported that about $1.6B of it came from outside operations, including other income and a tax benefit.
Spending is running ahead of sales. SpaceX spent $19.59B on property and equipment in the third quarter, 134% of its revenue, $16.44B of it in the AI segment, and guided $35–40B for the fourth. That puts 2026 capital spending at about $83B–88B. At September 30 it held $89.9B in cash and marketable securities against $38.8B of debt and finance leases, much of the cash from June’s share sale.
Musk’s December rate is 1.7 times the third quarter’s pace
SpaceX revenue at a yearly rate, $ billions: the third quarter of 2026 × 4; Musk’s November 6 statement that the December rate will exceed $100B; the CFO’s October 20 guidance for the first quarter of 2027 × 4, outlined from $132B to $148B; and Musk’s “best guess” of more than $500B by December 2027. Dashed bars are Musk’s statements.
Capital spending has exceeded revenue every quarter this year
SpaceX revenue (grey-blue) and purchases of property and equipment (orange) by quarter, $ billions. Q1 2026 capex is nine months less Q2 and Q3. For the fourth quarter, capex is the $35–40B guidance (the dashed part is the range) and revenue is Q3 × 1.7, Musk’s estimate.
Terafab
Baron said Terafab would cost $1T; Musk said the money would not be needed immediately. Terafab is the chip-making project SpaceX and Tesla unveiled in March, which Intel said in April it would join. Musk’s goal is a terawatt of AI chips a year. He put the world’s AI chip output at about 20–25 GW this year and 35–45 GW in 2027, so a terawatt would be 22 to 29 times 2027 by his own range; he called it about 30 times. The only official cost is the Texas governor’s August 6 figure of more than $16.8B for a first phase in Grimes County. On Tesla’s October 21 call Musk said the long-term cost would probably be north of $100B. Reuters reported he is aiming for a first test chip by mid-2027 and volume production in the third quarter of 2028.
$1T is about five years of the whole chip industry’s capital spending. TSMC’s capital budget for 2026 is $60–64B; at $64B a year, $1T is 15.6 years of it. Semiconductor Intelligence estimated in April that all chipmakers would spend about $200B this year, so $1T is 5 times that. It is 60 times the first phase. Musk did not say over what period it would be spent, or how the cost would be split between SpaceX and Tesla. SpaceX shares rose 8.53% on November 6, to $134.16; 24/7 Wall St. noted no source tied the move to his remarks.
$1T against what chipmakers spend
$ billions. Terafab: the first-phase capital investment the Texas governor announced on August 6 (more than $16.8B), Musk’s October 21 long-term figure (north of $100B), and Ron Baron’s $1T of November 6. For scale, 2026 capital spending: TSMC’s $60–64B budget, SpaceX’s nine months plus its fourth-quarter guidance, and an April estimate for all chipmakers.
SpaceX by quarter, $ millions
| Quarter | Space | Connectivity | Super Intelligence | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 1,666 | 3,097 | 813 | 5,576 |
| Q4 2025 | 809 | 3,228 | 923 | 4,960 |
| Q1 2026 (derived) | 619 | 3,257 | 818 | 4,694 |
| Q2 2026 | 962 | 4,291 | 2,561 | 7,814 |
| Q3 2026 | 1,767 | 5,248 | 7,560 | 14,575 |
What this changes on 06.ai
- Lab revenue tracker: SpaceX’s Super Intelligence segment, which holds xAI, reported $7.56B in the third quarter ($30.2B a year). If the tracker follows xAI, that is the reported figure to use; note that the segment also includes X advertising ($538M in the quarter), Cursor (about $608M, per sec-api.io) and compute sold to others.
- Memory balance pack: Terafab’s official cost is still the $16.8B first phase; the $1T is Ron Baron’s figure, and volume production is targeted for late 2028 at the earliest.
- Watch SpaceX’s fourth-quarter results for whether revenue reaches the $25B a quarter a $100B yearly rate needs.
Sources and method
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Results | Q3 2026 revenue $14.575B (+161%): Space $1.767B, Connectivity $5.248B, Super Intelligence $7.560B; Q3 2025 by segment; nine-month revenue $27.083B; net income $4.404B; capex $19.593B (Super Intelligence $16.444B), nine months $48.069B; cash $51.294B, marketable securities $38.561B | SpaceX third-quarter 2026 results, Oct 20 |
| Results | Q2 2026 revenue $7.814B by segment; Q2 capex $18.369B, consistent with nine-month capex by segment in the Q3 release | TelecomLead, on SpaceX’s Q2 release |
| Results | Q4 2025 revenue by segment ($4.96B); debt and finance leases $38.844B; Q4 capex guidance $35–40B; December $100B run rate tied to earlier company targets | sec-api.io, on the Q3 10-Q and call |
| Results | First profit as a public company; Q4 capex guidance of $35–40B from the CFO on the call | SpaceQ, Oct 2026 |
| Results | Super Intelligence revenue passed Starlink’s in Q3; the June share sale raised $85.7B after fees | Stock Titan |
| Guidance | First-quarter 2027 revenue guidance of $33–37B (CFO, Oct 20 call) | FourWeekMBA |
| Baron conference | Annual rate of revenue above $100B in December; more than $500B by December 2027 “quite likely”, “my best guess”; about 2% odds of $1T; Baron: Terafab will cost $1T; Musk: money not needed immediately; global AI chip output about 20–25 GW in 2026 and 35–45 GW in 2027 | TeslaNorth transcript, Nov 7 |
| Baron conference | Recap: $100B in December, $500B “not a promise”, 1 TW a year of chips about 30 times 2027 output | TeslaNorth recap, Nov 6 |
| Baron conference | Q4 revenue about 70% above Q3 | KuCoin News, relaying Odaily, Nov 7 |
| Shares | SpaceX rose 8.53% to $134.16 on November 6; Terafab timeline; Baron’s $1T | 24/7 Wall St., Nov 7 |
| Terafab | First phase in Grimes County: capital investment of more than $16.8B, 100 million square feet, 3,000 jobs | Office of the Texas Governor, Aug 6 |
| Terafab | Musk: “tens of billions” at first, north of $100B in the long term | TeslaNorth, Oct 22 |
| Terafab | First SRAM test chip by mid-2027; volume production targeted for the third quarter of 2028 | TrendForce, on Reuters, Oct 21 |
| Terafab | Intel joins the project, April 7 | SiliconANGLE |
| Scale | Micron fiscal 2027 capital spending on track to exceed $50B, on its Sep 30 call, as reported | Herald Corp, Oct 1 |
| Scale | TSMC 2026 capital budget held at $60–64B, Oct 15 | Focus Taiwan |
| Scale | Global semiconductor capital spending about $200B in 2026, up 20% (estimate of April 1) | Bits&Chips, on Semiconductor Intelligence |
Segment figures are as SpaceX reported them; Q4 2025 by segment is from sec-api.io’s reading of the filings. Q1 2026: nine months 27,083 − Q3 14,575 − Q2 7,814 = 4,694; Q1 capex 48,069 − 19,593 − 18,369 = 10,107. Growth: 14,575 ÷ 5,576 − 1 = 161.4%; ÷ 7,814 − 1 = 86.5%; Super Intelligence 7,560 ÷ 2,561 − 1 = 195.2%, and ÷ 14,575 = 51.9%. Rates: 14,575 × 4 = 58,300; 100,000 ÷ 4 = 25,000 a quarter; 100,000 ÷ 58,300 = 1.715, so the quarter must rise 71.5%; Musk’s 70%: 14,575 × 1.7 = 24,778; first-quarter guidance 33,000–37,000 × 4 = 132,000–148,000; 500,000 ÷ 58,300 = 8.6. Capex: 19,593 ÷ 14,575 = 134.4%; 2026: 48,069 + 35,000–40,000 = 83,069–88,069. Liquidity: 51,294 + 38,561 = 89,855. Terafab: 1,000 ÷ 64 = 15.63; 1,000 ÷ 200 = 5.0; 1,000 ÷ 16.8 = 59.5 (the first phase is “more than” $16.8B, so this is an upper bound); 1,000 GW ÷ 45 = 22.2 and ÷ 35 = 28.6. Musk’s remarks are quoted from TeslaNorth’s transcript, which it says has not been checked word for word against the video; 24/7 Wall St. reported him saying the cost “probably will” reach $1T over time, wording the transcript does not contain, so this post does not use it. The $200B industry estimate is from April and probably low for a year in which Micron alone is reported to be on track to spend more than $50B in its fiscal 2027.
Wire reports are written within hours of the news, on a six-hour schedule. Each lists its sources and shows the arithmetic behind its figures. Not investment advice.