W.053About two dozen Chinese firms are cleared to buy or handle Nvidia’s H200, the NYT reports, two with no apparent office. H200 sales to China were under 1% of Nvidia’s data center revenue in the quarter to July
The US Commerce Department has approved roughly two dozen Chinese companies to buy or handle Nvidia’s H200 chips, the New York Times reported on November 7, citing people familiar with the approvals. Two had no apparent presence at their listed addresses, and four have ties to China’s military or to blacklisted companies, the Times reported. In May, Reuters reported 10 firms cleared for up to 75,000 chips each. Nvidia says H200 sales to China were under 1% of its data center revenue in the quarter to July, at most about 33k chips at the reported price.
The report
The licence list is longer than the one reported in May. Roughly two dozen Chinese firms have been approved to buy or handle H200s, the Times reported, citing people familiar with the approvals; Commerce has not published the list. In May, Reuters and CNBC reported that 10 Chinese firms had been cleared to buy up to 75,000 H200s each, a ceiling of 750k chips. The Times’s count includes companies approved to assemble the chips into servers, not only buyers. Accounts of the report name Baidu, BYD and Tesla’s Shanghai unit among the approved buyers.
Two licensees had no apparent presence at their addresses. New Matrix, about 17 months old and approved this year to assemble H200s into AI servers, listed a Beijing office the Times found empty. Maginfra’s office showed no sign of a working business when the Times visited in September. The paper reported that four licensees, including those two, have ties to China’s military or to companies on the US blacklist. None of the four responded to the Times. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security said it reviews every application carefully.
Few chips have moved under the licences. Nvidia’s quarterly filing for the three months to July 26 says it shipped a fraction of the allowed H200s because Beijing restricted the sales, and that they were less than 1% of data center revenue. That is under $0.89B, or fewer than about 33k chips at the roughly $27,000 a chip Reuters reported at the turn of the year. About 600k H200s were waiting in Hong Kong for Beijing’s approval as of early November, Reuters reported (W.024).
The May approvals allowed 750,000 chips. Nvidia’s H200 sales to China in the quarter to July were at most about 33,000
H200 chips, thousands. May approvals: 10 firms cleared for up to 75,000 each (Reuters and CNBC, May 14), a ceiling; the Times’s November count of about two dozen firms comes with no total. Waiting in Hong Kong: about 600,000 (Reuters, November 5, two unnamed sources). Nvidia’s H200 sales to China: an upper bound, under 1% of its $89.0B of data center revenue in the quarter to July 26, divided by about $27,000 a chip (Reuters, December 31, 2025). ByteDance and Tencent: about 10,000 each received (FT, August 18). None of the counts is a company figure.
Enforcement
Penalties for export violations rose more than 18-fold last year, the bureau says. The Bureau of Industry and Security reported about $324M of penalties in 2025, $108M administrative and $216M in criminal fines, forfeitures and restitution, against $16M in 2024. The Times reported that it hired more than 90 enforcement officers this year. In July, the bureau’s head asked Congress to take Export Enforcement from 299 to 669 positions and its funding from $122M to $301M.
The rules allow sales with conditions. President Trump said in December 2025 that Nvidia could ship H200s to approved customers in China with 25% going to the United States; Nvidia’s filing describes it as a 25% tariff on import into the US, which it has not been able to pass on. A January rule reviews licences case by case, caps shipments to China at half of those to US customers, requires testing in the US and bars military end users. Nvidia’s outlook for the quarter to October assumed no data center compute revenue from China; it reports on November 17.
Export-violation penalties rose from $16M in 2024 to $324M in 2025
$ millions, calendar years, all export violations, not only chips. Administrative penalties (lower segment) and criminal fines, forfeitures and restitution (upper segment). Both years: BIS FY2025 annual report, calendar-year figures; the 2024 total also in the bureau’s head’s House testimony, July 14, 2026.
The bureau has asked to more than double its enforcement staff
BIS Export Enforcement, current and as requested in the budget, from the bureau’s head’s House testimony on July 14, 2026. Positions, and funding in $ millions; the request also takes overseas enforcement officers from 25 to 65. A request, not an approved budget.
The figures behind the charts
| Item | As of | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Firms approved to buy or handle H200s (NYT) | Nov 7 | roughly two dozen |
| Firms cleared, up to 75,000 each (Reuters/CNBC) | May 14 | 10 |
| May ceiling (derived) | May 14 | 750,000 |
| H200s waiting in Hong Kong | Nov 5 | ~600,000 |
| Received by ByteDance and Tencent | Aug 18 | ~20,000 |
| Nvidia Data Center revenue, quarter to July 26 | Jul 26 | $89.023B |
| H200 sales to China, upper bound (derived) | Jul 26 | <$0.89B; <32,971 chips |
| BIS penalties 2024 / 2025, $M | calendar years | 16 / 324 |
What this changes on 06.ai
- W.024 counted the chips on the Chinese side; this adds the US side: about two dozen licensees, and under 1% of Nvidia’s data center revenue actually shipped to China in the quarter to July.
- Compute balance pack: China H200 supply stays a licence count, not a shipment count. Nvidia’s results on November 17 will say whether any China data center revenue came in the quarter to October.
- Worth tracking: the licensee count, chips cleared, chips shipped and chips held in Hong Kong, each dated, as the series that shows whether the H200 channel opens.
Sources and method
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| NYT | Roughly two dozen Chinese firms approved to buy or handle H200s, per people familiar; New Matrix and Maginfra had no apparent presence at listed addresses; four named licensees have military or blacklist ties; BIS reported $324M in 2025 penalties and hired more than 90 enforcement officers this year; H200 shipments to China under 1% of Nvidia’s data center revenue in the quarter to July | New York Times, Nov 7 |
| NYT | The same report, summarized: two dozen firms, the two offices, the ties, the BIS figures; Nvidia’s comment | FourWeekMBA, Nov 7 |
| NYT | The same report: New Matrix approved this year to assemble H200s into servers; Maginfra’s office; Baidu, BYD and Tesla Shanghai among approved buyers | ShiftDelete, Nov 7 |
| NYT | The four licensees’ reported ties: New Matrix (Wise Road), Maginfra (Inspur), Zhejiang Yindun Cloud (defence bureaus’ data centers), Shanghai Jiatang (Datang Telecom) | Wccftech, Nov 8 |
| May | US cleared 10 Chinese firms to buy up to 75,000 H200s each | CNBC, May 14, 2026 |
| Nvidia | Data Center revenue $89.0B in the quarter to July 26, 2026; H200 shipments to China-based customers under 1% of Data Center revenue; sales restricted by the PRC government; H200s subject to a 25% tariff on import into the US | Nvidia 10-Q, quarter to Jul 26, 2026 |
| Nvidia | Third-quarter outlook assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China | Nvidia release, Aug 26 |
| Nvidia | Third-quarter results on November 17 | Nvidia, conference call notice |
| Volumes | About 600,000 H200s stored in Hong Kong awaiting Beijing’s approval | Reuters, via Investing.com, Nov 5 |
| Volumes | ByteDance and Tencent each received about 10,000 H200s | FT, via Benzinga, Aug 19 |
| Price | About $27,000 a chip for Chinese customers | Reuters, via Malay Mail, Jan 1 |
| BIS | Calendar 2025 penalties about $324M: $108M administrative, $216M criminal fines, forfeitures and restitution; calendar 2024: $10M and $6M; an 18-fold increase | BIS FY2025 annual report |
| BIS | Penalties up more than 18-fold, from $16M in 2024; budget request takes Export Enforcement from 299 to 669 positions, overseas officers from 25 to 65, funding from $122M to $301M | Jeffrey Kessler, House testimony, Jul 14, 2026 |
| Policy | December 8, 2025: H200 shipments allowed to approved customers in China, with 25% to the United States | The Register, Dec 9, 2025 |
| Policy | January 2026 rule: case-by-case review; China shipments capped at 50% of US end-customer shipments; testing in the US before export; no military end users | Morgan Lewis, Jan 2026 |
We read the Times’s report through its syndications and summaries; the paper did not publish the list or a total of chips approved, and accounts differ on whether each licensee or only some were cleared for tens of thousands of chips, so we do not total the November approvals. May ceiling: 10 × 75,000 = 750,000. Nvidia’s sales to China: under 1% × $89,023M = under $890M; ÷ $27,000 = under 32,971 chips, assuming all of it was H200s at that price. Hong Kong: 600,000 ÷ 20,000 = 30×; at $27,000, about $16.2B. Penalties: 10 + 6 = 16; 108 + 216 = 324; 324 ÷ 16 = 20.3× ($M) on rounded totals; BIS reports an 18-fold increase. Licensees: about 24 ÷ 10 = 2.4×, not like for like, since the November count includes server assemblers.
Wire reports are written within hours of the news, on a six-hour schedule. Each lists its sources and shows the arithmetic behind its figures. Not investment advice.