W.056Britain won’t slow its data centre build, its growth minister says. Data centre projects queueing for the grid hold about 73GW, 1.6 times peak demand and 14 times what the grid operator expects by 2030
Growth minister Dan Tomlinson told the Financial Times that data centres will go ahead as essential infrastructure, though not at any cost. About 315 data centre projects with about 73GW of contracted capacity sit in Great Britain’s connection queue, Ofgem says, 1.6 times peak demand of 45GW and about 30 times the 2.4GW of data centres connected in 2025. The regulator wants projects of 40MW or more to put up £237,500 to £712,500 a megawatt to keep their place.
The minister
The government says it will keep building. Tomlinson, minister for growth at the Treasury and Cabinet Office since July, told the FT that Britain will need more data centres as AI spreads and that they will go ahead as essential infrastructure, despite a backlash against them in the US. Growth will not come at any cost, he said: projects that want government support must benefit their area and create jobs, and the UK will watch them more closely than parts of the US have. He also called the pace of investment too low. Activists in 15 European countries protested against data centres on November 6 and 7, and a march to the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh is planned for November 14.
The queue is far larger than the grid it wants to join. About 315 data centre projects, from 1MW to 1,500MW and averaging about 232MW, account for about 73GW of the contracted demand queue, Ofgem said in July, presenting it as part of the queue of June 2025. That is 1.6 times Great Britain’s peak demand of 45GW, 14 times the 5.2GW of data centres the grid operator NESO forecasts for 2030, and 12 times the at least 6GW of AI-capable capacity the government forecasts the UK will need by 2030, though the queue counts all kinds of data centre. NESO, which counts about 72.8GW of data centre connection requests through 2039, says it does not expect all of them to connect.
The data centre queue is 1.6 times peak demand and about 30 times what was connected in 2025
Gigawatts. Queue: about 315 data centre projects’ contracted connection capacity in Great Britain, from Ofgem’s July 2026 consultation, presented against the June 2025 queue (its press release says “at least 80GW”). Peak demand: 2025/26, NESO Triad data, as cited by Ofgem. Government need: AI-capable capacity, at least 6GW by 2030 (Compute Roadmap, July 2025), the government’s forecast of what the UK will need, not of what will be built. NESO forecast: all data centres in 2030, with the FES 2025 range of 3.7–6.3GW dashed. Connected: about 2.4GW in 2025 (NESO FES 2025).
The queue and the fix
The whole demand queue roughly tripled in seven months. Contracted demand waiting to connect rose from 41GW in November 2024 to about 125GW in June 2025, by Ofgem’s count, most of it at transmission level; data centres were about 58% of the later figure. Ofgem says at least 9GW of transmission requests switched from batteries to data centres between May 2024 and August 2025.
Ofgem wants speculative projects to pay to wait. Under its July proposal, data centres of 40MW or more that connect to the transmission network, or need a transmission assessment, would lodge a commitment fee of £237,500 to £712,500 a megawatt, 2.5% to 7.5% of an assumed £9.5m a megawatt build cost, from accepting a grid offer until switching on. It is refunded at connection and forfeited if the project leaves the queue. A 100MW project would put up £23.8m to £71.3m. Ofgem said it would decide later in 2026; we found no decision yet.
Delays are already costing projects. Nscale’s Loughton site in Essex, 50MW expandable to 90MW for 23,040 Nvidia GB300s, was due to start in 2027; UK Power Networks told Nscale that enough power may not arrive until the early to mid-2030s, it was reported in September. Microsoft withdrew from the project in October, the Telegraph reported. Nscale says it remains committed to Loughton.
Contracted demand in the queue rose from 41GW to about 125GW in seven months
Great Britain’s demand connection queue, contracted GW, transmission (upper segment) and distribution (lower), all types of demand. Ofgem’s November 2025 update and July 2026 consultation, from network operators’ data. The June 2025 segments sum to 126GW; Ofgem’s headline is 125GW. For comparison, peak demand in 2025/26 was 45GW.
For a 100MW data centre, Ofgem’s fee would be £24–71m, against about £950m to build it
Ofgem’s proposed Data Centre Commitment Fee, July 2026 consultation, for its 100MW worked example, £ millions. The fee is 2.5% (solid) to 7.5% (dashed) of capex at Ofgem’s assumed £9.5m a megawatt; it would apply to projects of 40MW or more connecting to transmission or needing a transmission assessment, and is refunded on connection. A proposal, not a decision.
The figures behind the charts
| Item | As of | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Data centre projects in the queue | Jun 2025 | ~315; ~73GW |
| GB peak demand | 2025/26 | 45GW |
| Whole demand queue, transmission + distribution | Nov 2024 | 17 + 24 = 41GW |
| Whole demand queue, transmission + distribution | Jun 2025 | 97 + 29 = 126GW (headline 125) |
| AI-capable capacity needed by 2030 (government) | Jul 2025 | ≥6GW |
| Data centre capacity, 2030 (NESO forecast; FES range) | 2025 | 5.2GW (3.7–6.3) |
| Data centres connected (NESO FES 2025) | 2025 | ~2.4GW |
| Fee if every queued MW paid (derived, upper bound) | proposal | £17.3bn–£52.0bn |
What this changes on 06.ai
- Compute balance pack: Britain’s binding constraint is grid connection, not demand; a 73GW queue against 2.4GW connected says little about what will be built. NESO’s 5.2GW for 2030 is the better planning figure.
- Worth tracking: Ofgem’s decision on the commitment fee, and how much of the queue leaves once it applies; the size of the drop is the measure of how speculative the queue was.
Sources and method
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Minister | Tomlinson: the UK will not slow down on AI despite the US backlash; data centres will go ahead | Financial Times, Nov 7 |
| Minister | “we won’t allow that growth to come at any cost”; projects seeking support must benefit their area; investment pace too low | IBTimes, Nov 8, citing the FT |
| Minister | Data centres as “essential infrastructure”; the Compute Roadmap’s 6GW | Engadget, Nov 8 |
| Queue | Around 315 data centre projects, about 73GW of contracted capacity, from 1MW to 1,500MW; GB peak demand 45GW in 2025/26; whole demand queue 41GW in November 2024 and 125GW in June 2025; proposed fee £237,500–£712,500 per MW for projects of 40MW or more, 2.5–7.5% of £9.5m/MW capex | Ofgem consultation, Jul 29, 2026 |
| Queue | Data centres “at least 80GW” of the surge; queue more than tripled in under a year | Ofgem press release, Jul 29, 2026 |
| Queue | Transmission and distribution split of the queue: 17 + 24GW and 97 + 29GW | Ofgem, demand connections update, Nov 2025 |
| Queue | 315 data centres queueing, 73GW, against 45GW peak demand | The Guardian, Nov 5, via AOL |
| NESO | Forecast 5.2GW of data centre capacity in 2030; FES 2025 range 3.7–6.3GW; about 72.8GW of data centre requests through 2039 | NESO evidence to the Environmental Audit Committee |
| NESO | About 2.4GW of data centre capacity connected | Solar Power Portal, on FES 2025, Jul 15, 2025 |
| Need | At least 6GW of AI-capable data centre capacity by 2030; AI Growth Zones of at least 500MW | UK Compute Roadmap, Jul 2025 |
| Protests | Protests in 15 countries on November 6 and 7; march to the Scottish Parliament on November 14 | The Register |
| NESO | 50.8GW across 152 data centre project phases among transmission-level customers | NESO Demand Call for Input summary, Mar 2026 |
| Nscale | Loughton: 50MW, expandable to 90MW, 23,040 Nvidia GB300s; Microsoft withdrew | The Register, Oct 19 |
| Nscale | Enough grid power may not arrive until the early to mid-2030s, UK Power Networks said | Euronews, Sep 29 |
We read the FT interview through the accounts above. The queue figures are for Great Britain, not the UK, and count contracted connection capacity, not demand or capacity under construction; Ofgem presents the figure against the June 2025 queue, in a July 2026 consultation. The Guardian’s “315 datacentres” are Ofgem’s “around 315 projects”. Ofgem gives about 73GW in its consultation and “at least 80GW” in its press release; NESO’s own call for input counted 50.8GW across 152 project phases among transmission-level customers (March 2026). Ratios: 73 ÷ 45 = 1.62; 73 ÷ 6 = 12.2; 73 ÷ 5.2 = 14.0; 73 ÷ 2.4 = 30.4. Average project: 73,000MW ÷ 315 = 232MW. Queue growth: 125 ÷ 41 = 3.05×; data centre share 73 ÷ 125 = 58.4%. Fee: £237,500 ÷ £9.5m = 2.5%; £712,500 ÷ £9.5m = 7.5%; 100MW × each = £23.8m and £71.3m; build cost 100 × £9.5m = £950m. If every queued megawatt paid, 73000 × £237,500 to £712,500 = £17.3bn to £52.0bn, an upper bound, since projects under 40MW, and most distribution-connected ones, are exempt.
Wire reports are written within hours of the news, on a six-hour schedule. Each lists its sources and shows the arithmetic behind its figures. Not investment advice.