W.009Drax’s £20B data centre is seven times Drax, and mostly conditional
Drax has signed an agreement to develop a partnership with Brookfield and its AI infrastructure company Radiant for a data centre at Drax Power Station in North Yorkshire. Brookfield estimates the investment, chips included, could exceed £20B, about 7 times Drax’s market value. Only the first 100MW, an initial £2.5B, has a target operating date, the first quarter of 2028, subject to planning, a tenant and final investment decisions.
A dated first 100MW, then an ambition
Data centre capacity, cumulative MW, by phase as Drax’s release describes them. Solid is Phase 1, dated to Q1 2028 and still conditional; outlined is capacity described as an ambition or a target. Every figure is “up to” or “more than.”
Data
| Phase | When | Adds | Cumulative | As described |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 1 | 2026–28 | up to 100MW | up to 100MW | up to 100MW; commercial operation from Q1 2028; grid-powered through existing station infrastructure |
| Phase 2 | 2028–31 | up to 500MW | up to 600MW | an ambition for up to 500MW more, behind the meter from Drax’s own generation; needs UK Government and LCCC agreement under Drax’s contract for difference |
| Phase 3 | after 2031 | further capacity | >1GW | further capacity, to a target of more than 1GW in all |
What was signed
The release describes an agreement to develop a partnership, not a final contract. Radiant would lead design, customers and commercial terms; Drax would provide “powered land” and lead planning and power integration; capital and operations would come through Brookfield’s AI infrastructure venture with Qatar’s Qai. Phase 1 depends on planning, regulatory and network approvals, “an acceptable tenant”, commercial agreements and a final investment decision by each party. Public consultation is expected to start this month. The release discloses no ownership split and no payments to Drax.
The £20B is Brookfield’s estimate of what could be invested, and it includes chips. Most of a GPU data centre’s cost is the servers, so the figure is not comparable with announcements that cover only buildings and power. Phase 1’s initial £2.5B for up to 100MW is about £25M per MW; the release doesn’t say whether that includes chips. Citi wrote that the announcement reads more like a memorandum of understanding than a firm contract, according to Reuters; JPMorgan said Brookfield’s involvement adds credibility.
What changed since December is a partner and a price, and the date slipped. In December 2025 Drax set out a first phase of about 100MW “as soon as 2027” with options above 1GW, but no partner and no capital figure; the shares rose to 770p. Phase 1 is now dated to the first quarter of 2028.
The headline figure is seven times the company
£B. Drax’s market value as reported on the morning of November 3, after the shares rose; Phase 1’s initial investment; and Brookfield’s estimate of total potential investment, including chips, which “could exceed” £20B. None of it is committed until each party takes a final investment decision.
The station could feed it; the subsidy contract decides how much
MW. Drax’s four biomass units; their average output if run at the 27% load factor cap in the 2027–31 bridging contract for difference; and the data centre (DC) as phased. Phase 2’s up to 500MW would run behind the meter from Drax’s own generation, which needs Government and Low Carbon Contracts Company agreement under that contract.
The site also has about 4GW of grid access, according to Data Centre Review, which is why Phase 1 can run from the grid through the station’s existing connection. The 27% cap limits the subsidised output; it is shown as a scale, not as a forecast of what Drax will generate.
Against the rest of the UK pipeline
A gigawatt would be a large share of what Britain runs today. UK data centres use around 2GW of electricity, according to a government estimate reported by The Register, and the government’s July 2025 Compute Roadmap targets 6GW of AI-capable data centre capacity by 2030. The queue for grid connections is far larger: Ofgem said in July that data centres account for at least 80GW of contracted demand, as it set out measures against speculative projects. A site with a connection and its own generation is what the queue lacks, which is Drax’s case for the project.
Other announced projects are priced on different bases. QTS (Blackstone), Cambois: “up to £10bn”, 720MW of IT load; Brookfield, Cambrai (France): about €15bn of a €20bn French plan, “up to one gigawatt”; Brookfield, Strängnäs (Sweden): up to SEK 95bn (about $9.9bn), 750MW over 10–15 years. None says clearly whether chips are included, so a cost per megawatt across them would not compare like with like.
The power source is contested. Drax burns wood pellets, mostly imported from North America. Environmental groups quoted by the BBC criticised a data centre run on biomass; in 2024 Drax paid £25M into a redress fund after Ofgem found it had reported inaccurate data on where its wood came from, while finding no evidence the biomass was unsustainable.
What this changes on 06.ai
- Series lead: UK and European AI data centre announcements with MW, phase dates, the stated investment and whether it includes chips. Drax’s phase 1 (up to 100MW, £2.5B, Q1 2028) is a dated, checkable entry; the £20B is not.
- Pack lead (015, who funds the neoclouds): Radiant, Brookfield’s GPU cloud, would lead commercialisation and customers here. If Phase 1 reaches a final investment decision, its tenant and financing are a data point for the neocloud funding pack.
Sources and method
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| The agreement | Signed an agreement to develop a strategic partnership; Radiant leads design and customers, Drax provides powered land; Phase 1 up to 100MW from Q1 2028 with an initial £2.5bn; Phase 2 an ambition for up to 500MW more in 2028–31, behind the meter, needing Government and LCCC agreement; target above 1GW; total potential investment, including chips, could exceed £20bn (Brookfield estimate); conditions: planning, network approvals, an acceptable tenant, final investment decisions | Drax, Nov 3 |
| The agreement | RNS text (mirror) | Investegate |
| Shares | Up 8.6% to 878.5p, top FTSE 250 riser | AJ Bell, Nov 3 |
| Shares | Up 8.78% to 880p at 08:15; market value about £2.7bn | AskTraders, Nov 3 |
| Analysts | Citi: reads more like a memorandum of understanding than a firm contract; JPMorgan: Brookfield adds credibility | Reuters via Yahoo Finance, Nov 3 |
| Site | About 4GW of grid access, 2.6GW of dispatchable generation, more than 1,000 acres | Data Centre Review, Nov 3 |
| Bridging contract | Four 645MW biomass units; contract for difference April 2027 to March 2031, strike £113/MWh (2012 prices), load factor capped at 27% | Enerdata, Feb 11, 2025 |
| Earlier plan | Dec 2025: about 100MW first phase as soon as 2027, options above 1GW, no partner; shares to 770p | AJ Bell, Dec 11, 2025 |
| Radiant | Brookfield’s AI cloud unit, merged with London-based Ori; valued at $1.3bn | Reuters via Global Banking & Finance, Feb 27 |
| Peers | QTS Cambois: up to £10bn, 720MW | DCD |
| Peers | Brookfield France: €20bn by 2030, about €15bn for an up-to-1GW campus at Cambrai | Maginative, Feb 2025 |
| Peers | Brookfield Sweden: up to SEK 95bn, 750MW at Strängnäs over 10–15 years | DCD, Jun 2025 |
| Criticism | Environmental groups’ criticism of a biomass-powered data centre; local MP and science minister supportive | BBC via Yahoo, Nov 3 |
| Ofgem, 2024 | Drax paid £25m to a redress fund over inaccurate biomass sourcing data; no evidence the biomass was unsustainable | ITV, Aug 29, 2024 |
| UK context | 6GW of AI-capable data centre capacity needed by 2030 (Compute Roadmap, July 2025) | DCD |
| Fuel | Drax’s wood pellets come largely from the US South and Canada | Louisiana Illuminator, Feb 9 |
| UK context | Data centres are at least 80GW of contracted demand in the connection queue | Ofgem, Jul 29 |
| UK context | UK data centres use around 2GW of electricity, per a government estimate; the £20bn is “more ambition than actual money” | The Register, Nov 3 |
Phases are as Drax’s release describes them; cumulative capacity adds Phase 1’s up to 100MW and Phase 2’s up to 500MW to give up to 600MW by 2031, and Phase 3 is drawn to the 1GW target, which the release says would be exceeded. The multiple is £20B ÷ £2.7B = 7.4, using AskTraders’ market value on the morning of November 3. Phase 1 per MW is £2.5B ÷ 100MW = £25M. The share move is AJ Bell’s intraday reading (878.5p, up 8.6%); a closing price was not found.
Station capacity is 4 × 645MW = 2,580MW. Average output at the cap is 2,580MW × 0.27 = 697MW; the cap is the load factor limit Enerdata reported for the bridging contract (April 2027 to March 2031, strike £113/MWh in 2012 prices). Drax’s release puts the contracted volume at about 6TWh a year, about 30% of baseload output; 697MW for a year is about 6.1TWh.
Wire reports are written within hours of the news, on a six-hour schedule. Each lists its sources and shows the arithmetic behind its figures. Not investment advice.