W.001Half of Anthropic’s Q3 compute bill went on short-term capacity
Anthropic’s amended S-1 puts third-quarter revenue at $16.96B, up 47% on the second quarter. Its compute bill grew faster, 77%, to $9.86B, and $5.0B of it was bought under short-term commitments, which the filing says cost significantly more than its multi-year contracts. A $974M operating profit in the second quarter became a $567M loss. The filing also fills in the total the October filing left blank: $895.4B of commitments, $69.8B of them due in the next twelve months, about a year of third-quarter revenue.
In Q3, compute grew faster than revenue for the first time in the filing’s seven quarters
Revenue and compute and infrastructure expense by quarter, $B. Q1 2025 to Q2 2026 from the S-1’s quarterly results; Q3 2026 from the amended S-1, which puts compute bought under short-term commitments at $5.0B in the quarter and $6.5B over nine months: $1.5B in the first half, not split by quarter. The figure over each pair is revenue per $1 of compute.
Data
| Quarter | Revenue | Compute and infrastructure | Revenue per $1 of compute | Revenue, q/q | Compute, q/q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $0.38B | $0.94B | 0.40 | — | — |
| Q2 2025 | $0.79B | $1.39B | 0.57 | 109% | 47% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.38B | $2.05B | 0.68 | 76% | 47% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.04B | $2.95B | 0.69 | 48% | 44% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.73B | $3.39B | 1.40 | 132% | 15% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.56B | $5.56B | 2.08 | 144% | 64% |
| Q3 2026 | $16.96B | $9.86B | 1.72 | 47% | 77% |
Where the compute went
Mostly not into serving paying customers. Cost of revenue, which carries the compute that serves them, was about $2.43B in the third quarter: $4.81B for the nine months less the $2.38B the October filing gave for the first half. That is at most a quarter of the $9.86B compute bill, and a gross margin of about 85.7%, in line with the first half’s 85.4%. The rest went to training, research and internal use, booked in research and development, and to free use of Claude, which the filing books in sales and marketing. Anthropic runs all of it as one pool with serving.
The short-term compute was the price of not waiting. Multi-year compute is usually contracted 12 to 18 months before it arrives, the filing says. The $5.0B bought under short-term commitments filled the gap. That compute currently costs significantly more than comparable compute under its multi-year commitments, and the filing names it as a main reason for the operating loss. Anthropic plans to replace it with cheaper long-term capacity as dedicated infrastructure comes online. It doesn’t say how large the premium is; the table further down shows the quarter at a range of them.
Revenue growth slowed, and price cuts cost about $600M. Revenue grew 47% on the second quarter, after 144% in the second quarter. Price reductions and contractual discounts took about $600M off revenue between the two quarters. On Anthropic’s adjusted measure, the operating margin fell to 15% from 19%, though adjusted profit rose in dollars.
The $23.3B net loss is mostly accounting. $21.9B of it is the change in the fair value of convertible notes, derivatives and SAFEs, which rises with Anthropic’s valuation. Operations brought in cash: $6.57B over the nine months.
From a $974M operating profit to a $567M loss
Operating income, Q2 to Q3 2026. Each bar is the change in one line of the amended S-1’s statement of operations; an expense that rose subtracts. The donation-matching charge sits inside other operating and administrative expense; we show it on its own.
If the short-term compute had cost what long-term compute does
The filing gives no premium. Each row assumes one, prices the same capacity at long-term rates, and adds the saving back to Q3 operating income (−$567M as reported).
| Short-term premium | Same compute, long-term | Saving | Q3 operating income | Margin | Before the donation charge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25× | $4.0B | $1.0B | +$433M | 2.6% | +$2,393M (14.1%) |
| 1.5× | $3.3B | $1.7B | +$1,100M | 6.5% | +$3,060M (18.0%) |
| 2× | $2.5B | $2.5B | +$1,933M | 11.4% | +$3,893M (23.0%) |
| 3× | $1.7B | $3.3B | +$2,766M | 16.3% | +$4,726M (27.9%) |
$895.4B of commitments: what they are, and who they’re with
Purchase commitments and leases as of and after September 30, 2026, $B, as the amended S-1 counts them. About $213.8B (24%) can still be ended, or depends on conditions, before it starts.
By counterparty
As the filing words them: at least, up to, or about. Outlined: amounts it expects but leaves out of the total. The rest is the total less the named amounts, so approximate.
| Counterparty | Amount | Term | Can it be ended? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broadcom · equipment leases | about $161.2B | Five-year leases; rent excluding interest | Not during the lease; only the lessor can cancel, on default |
| Google · cloud hosting | at least $121.3B | Apr 2026–Jul 2033; $114.5B in the October filing | Not by Anthropic, except on Google’s uncured material breach |
| SpaceXAI · compute | up to $120.5B | Into 2029; about $3.1B a month at full delivery, expected December 2026 | Either side, on 90 days’ notice, once non-cancelable periods end in January and March 2027 |
| Amazon · cloud | at least $110.0B | May 2026–Apr 2036 | Not by Anthropic, except on Amazon’s uncured material breach |
| Microsoft · cloud | at least $44.9B | Nov 2026–Jun 2033 | Only on Microsoft’s uncured material breach, or tranche by tranche for undelivered tranches |
| Nscale · GPU capacity | up to $44.6B | Into 2033 | Nscale must use best efforts to finance the GPUs and data centers |
| Lambda · GPU capacity | about $41.3B | Into 2034 | The August 2026 deal, $34.9B of it, can be terminated if Lambda doesn’t secure the facility lease |
| Google · more TPUs, outside the total | $125–150B | Delivery 2028–2031 | No fixed dollar commitment |
| AMD · Helios racks, outside the total | more than $20B | First tranche 2027 | Not by Anthropic, except on AMD’s uncured material breach |
Reading the commitments
Most of it isn’t broken out by year. The contractual obligations table, the part with dates, is $320.0B. The largest piece is $451.2B of leases signed but not yet started. Another $106.8B was signed after September 30. The leases are expected to start between 2026 and 2028.
A quarter of it can still change. $213.8B is subject to termination rights or conditions before it starts; the filing doesn’t itemize it. Lambda’s August 2026 deal, $34.9B, can be terminated if Lambda doesn’t secure its facility lease, and Nscale must use best efforts to obtain financing for its GPUs and data centers. Separately, either side can end the SpaceXAI deal, worth up to $120.5B, on 90 days’ notice once its non-cancelable periods run out in early 2027. Anthropic can’t cancel Google or Amazon short of their uncured material breach, and can’t cancel the Broadcom leases at all.
There is more outside the total. The filing expects $125–150B of further Google TPUs from 2028 and more than $20B of AMD’s Helios racks from 2027. With them, the total passes $1.04T.
The near-term bill is the tight part. $69.8B is due in the twelve months after September 30, a little more than third-quarter revenue annualized, $67.8B. Against it, Anthropic had $146.6B of cash, short-term investments and undrawn credit, 2.1 times the bill, and revenue that grew 47% in the quarter. Half the total, $447.5B, is expected to be incurred before 2031, and substantially all the rest between 2031 and 2045.
The next year’s bill is about a year of Q3 revenue
$B. Commitments due in the twelve months after September 30, and expected to be incurred before 2031, against third-quarter revenue times four and liquidity at September 30. Flows and balances share one axis for scale only.
The obligations table, by year
| Period | Due, $B | Against Q3 revenue × 4 |
|---|---|---|
| Oct–Dec 2026 | 5.2 | — |
| 2027 | 29.2 | 43% |
| 2028 | 44.4 | 65% |
| 2029 | 47.8 | 70% |
| 2030 | 45.1 | 66% |
| 2031 and after | 148.4 | — |
| Total | 320.0 |
This table is the $320.0B with a schedule. The other $575.4B, mostly leases not yet started and contracts signed after September 30, isn’t broken out by year; of the whole $895.4B, $69.8B falls in the next twelve months ($4.3B of it still conditional) and $447.5B before 2031.
What this changes on 06.ai
- Revenue tracker: the filing puts Q3 revenue at $16.956B. The tracker fits the $16.8B Anthropic gave investors in October, 0.9% lower.
- Pack 017: we backed Q3 compute out of Anthropic’s $1.70 of revenue per $1 of compute at $9.88B; the filing says $9.86B. The 85% gross margin we assumed held (85.7%). The October filing left the commitment total blank, so the pack used a reading of it (Daloopa’s nearly $590B); the amendment gives it: $895.4B. And the short-term line puts a dollar figure on the compute shortfall the pack modeled.
- To watch: at full delivery, expected in December, SpaceXAI alone bills about $3.1B a month, $9.3B a quarter, 94% of Q3’s whole compute bill.
Sources and method
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Amended S-1 | Filed and accepted November 2, 2026 (accession 0001628280-26-068676) | SEC EDGAR |
| S-1/A, line items | Q3 2026, Q2 2026 and Q3 2025 statement of operations; nine-month totals; cost of revenue for nine months; $5.0B and $6.5B of short-term compute; $1,960M donation-matching charge; fair-value loss $21,936M; cash, investments and credit facility; nine-month operating cash flow | PPC Land, Nov 3 |
| S-1/A, commitments | $895.4B and its parts; $447.5B before 2031; $69.8B in the next 12 months; $213.8B subject to termination rights or conditions; counterparties, amounts and terms; the yearly obligations table | PPC Land, Nov 3 |
| S-1/A, reported | Revenue about $17B, growth 47% after 144%; operating loss $567M after $974M profit; adjusted operating margin 15% after 19%; about $600M of price cuts and discounts; $2B donation charge; $895.4B; $146.6B of liquidity | Fortune, via Yahoo Finance, Nov 2 |
| S-1/A, reported | Operating expenses $17.5B and $10.6B; adjusted margins; Nasdaq listing as ANT; the registration is not yet effective | Data Studios |
| October S-1 | Aggregate commitment left blank; first-half 2026 adjusted operating income $1,618M (10% margin), operating margin −4% | SEC EDGAR, Oct 26 |
| October S-1, quarterly | Revenue and compute and infrastructure by quarter, Q1 2025–Q2 2026 | Allocations (as used in pack 017) |
| October S-1, by function | Cost of revenue $2,380M in the first half of 2026 | AlphaSense primer |
| Investor briefing | Q3 revenue $16.8B and $1.70 of revenue per $1 of compute, used by the tracker and pack 017 | FT, via Simon Willison, Oct 15 |
The amended S-1. Line items are as the filing gives them, read through PPC Land’s and Fortune’s reports, which agree where they overlap. We checked them against the October filing: its Q1 and Q2 2026 revenue ($4,731M and $11,555M) and compute ($3,387M and $5,558M), plus the amendment’s Q3, add up to the nine-month totals the amendment gives ($33,242M and $18,808M).
Derived. Q3 cost of revenue is the nine months’ $4,812M less the first half’s $2,380M; gross margin is one minus cost of revenue over revenue. Revenue per $1 of compute divides revenue by all compute and infrastructure expense, training, research and internal use included. Operating income before the donation charge adds back the $1,960M non-cash charge. Annualized revenue is Q3 times four. Liquidity is cash and equivalents ($95,562M), short-term investments ($36,283M) and the $14.8B available under its undrawn $15.0B revolver. “The rest” is $895.4B less the $643.8B named by counterparty; because the filing gives some amounts as at least or up to, it is approximate.
The premium table is ours, not Anthropic’s: saving = $5.0B × (1 − 1 ÷ premium), added to reported operating income. It assumes long-term capacity could have been had in the quarter, which the 12-to-18-month lead times the filing describes suggest it couldn’t, so it measures the cost of the timing, not a margin Anthropic gave up by choice.
Wire reports are written within hours of the news, on a six-hour schedule. Each lists its sources and shows the arithmetic behind its figures. Not investment advice.