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Wire · Chips · AMD

W.004AMD guides to $17B, a 27% jump in one quarter

AMD’s third-quarter revenue rose 45% to $13.38B, and Data Center nearly doubled to $8.55B, 64% of the total. For the fourth quarter AMD guides to about $17B, plus or minus 3%: $3.6B more than the quarter just reported, a 27% jump, and above the $16.2B analysts expected. Inventory rose to $11.46B, and free cash flow fell to $554M.

· Run 2 · Wire
Q4 2026 revenue guidance
~$17B
plus or minus 3% ($16.49B–$17.51B): +27% on Q3, +66% on a year earlier
Data Center revenue, Q3
$8.55B
+97% on a year earlier, +27% on Q2; 64% of revenue, from 47%
Inventory, September 26
$11.46B
up $3.54B since December, +45%
Free cash flow, Q3
$554M
from $1,558M in Q2 and $1,530M a year earlier, on record revenue

One quarter of guidance adds more than any quarter-on-quarter step before it

Revenue by quarter, $: Data Center (solid) and AMD’s other segments, Client and Gaming and Embedded (grey). The outlined bar is the midpoint of AMD’s fourth-quarter guidance, about $17B, plus or minus 3%. Q2 2025 Data Center revenue was held down by U.S. export restrictions on MI308 shipments to China; AMD also took about $800M of inventory and related charges, which hit margins rather than revenue.

Data Center…Q3 2026Other segmentsQ4 guidance midpoint
0$4B$8B$12B$16BQ1 ’24: Data Center $2,337M, 43% of revenueQ1 ’24: other segments $3,136M; total $5,473M$5.5BQ1’24Q2 ’24: Data Center $2,834M, 49% of revenueQ2 ’24: other segments $3,001M; total $5,835MQ2’24Q3 ’24: Data Center $3,549M, 52% of revenueQ3 ’24: other segments $3,270M; total $6,819M$6.8BQ3’24Q4 ’24: Data Center $3,859M, 50% of revenueQ4 ’24: other segments $3,799M; total $7,658MQ4’24Q1 ’25: Data Center $3,674M, 49% of revenueQ1 ’25: other segments $3,764M; total $7,438M$7.4BQ1’25Q2 ’25: Data Center $3,240M, 42% of revenueQ2 ’25: other segments $4,445M; total $7,685MQ2’25Q3 ’25: Data Center $4,341M, 47% of revenueQ3 ’25: other segments $4,905M; total $9,246M$9.2BQ3’25Q4 ’25: Data Center $5,380M, 52% of revenueQ4 ’25: other segments $4,890M; total $10,270MQ4’25Q1 ’26: Data Center $5,775M, 56% of revenueQ1 ’26: other segments $4,478M; total $10,253M$10.3BQ1’26Q2 ’26: Data Center $6,718M, 58% of revenueQ2 ’26: other segments $4,818M; total $11,536MQ2’26Q3 ’26: Data Center $8,546M, 64% of revenueQ3 ’26: other segments $4,831M; total $13,377M$13.4BQ3’26Q4 2026 guidance: about $17.0B, plus or minus 3% ($16.49B–$17.51B)~$17B ±3%Q4guide
0$4B$8B$12B$16BQ1 ’24: Data Center $2,337M, 43% of revenueQ1 ’24: other segments $3,136M; total $5,473MQ1’24Q2 ’24: Data Center $2,834M, 49% of revenueQ2 ’24: other segments $3,001M; total $5,835MQ2’24Q3 ’24: Data Center $3,549M, 52% of revenueQ3 ’24: other segments $3,270M; total $6,819MQ3’24Q4 ’24: Data Center $3,859M, 50% of revenueQ4 ’24: other segments $3,799M; total $7,658MQ4’24Q1 ’25: Data Center $3,674M, 49% of revenueQ1 ’25: other segments $3,764M; total $7,438MQ1’25Q2 ’25: Data Center $3,240M, 42% of revenueQ2 ’25: other segments $4,445M; total $7,685MQ2’25Q3 ’25: Data Center $4,341M, 47% of revenueQ3 ’25: other segments $4,905M; total $9,246MQ3’25Q4 ’25: Data Center $5,380M, 52% of revenueQ4 ’25: other segments $4,890M; total $10,270MQ4’25Q1 ’26: Data Center $5,775M, 56% of revenueQ1 ’26: other segments $4,478M; total $10,253MQ1’26Q2 ’26: Data Center $6,718M, 58% of revenueQ2 ’26: other segments $4,818M; total $11,536MQ2’26Q3 ’26: Data Center $8,546M, 64% of revenueQ3 ’26: other segments $4,831M; total $13,377M$13.4BQ3’26Q4 2026 guidance: about $17.0B, plus or minus 3% ($16.49B–$17.51B)~$17BQ4guide
Data
QuarterRevenueData CenterOtherData Center shareRevenue, y/y
Q1 ’24$5,473M$2,337M$3,136M43%–
Q2 ’24$5,835M$2,834M$3,001M49%–
Q3 ’24$6,819M$3,549M$3,270M52%–
Q4 ’24$7,658M$3,859M$3,799M50%–
Q1 ’25$7,438M$3,674M$3,764M49%+36%
Q2 ’25$7,685M$3,240M$4,445M42%+32%
Q3 ’25$9,246M$4,341M$4,905M47%+36%
Q4 ’25$10,270M$5,380M$4,890M52%+34%
Q1 ’26$10,253M$5,775M$4,478M56%+38%
Q2 ’26$11,536M$6,718M$4,818M58%+50%
Q3 ’26$13,377M$8,546M$4,831M64%+45%
Q4 ’26 guide~$17,000Mplus or minus 3%; non-GAAP gross margin about 55%

What the guidance says

AMD expects fourth-quarter revenue of about $17B, plus or minus 3%. At the midpoint that is $3.6B more than the third quarter; the largest step between consecutive quarters in the eleven shown here was $1.8B. AMD puts the midpoint at about 27% sequential growth and about 66% year on year, with a non-GAAP gross margin of about 55%, a point below the third quarter’s 56%. The release ties Data Center growth to EPYC server processors and the launch of its MI450 Instinct GPUs, and says Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure are running workloads on its first Helios racks.

On the call, management put most of the step in Data Center. According to a transcript published by Investing.com, AMD expects Data Center revenue to rise about 50% from the third quarter and Client and Gaming to fall more than 20%. If Data Center rises 50%, it would be about $12.8B of the $17.0B, leaving about $4.2B for everything else, against $4.8B in the third quarter. The same transcript has AMD expecting revenue growth above 80% in 2027. Neither figure is in the release.

The quarter itself beat both AMD’s range and the Street. Revenue was $77M above the top of the “$13 billion, plus or minus $300 million” AMD guided in August, and 2.2% above the LSEG consensus of $13.09B. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $2.09, against $1.95 expected. Shares closed at $483.90 on Tuesday, up 3.7% before the report, and rose by 5% to 8% after hours, depending on the time and the outlet.

Data Center has grown more than 90% for two quarters running

Data Center revenue, change from the same quarter a year earlier. Q2 2025 was held down by U.S. restrictions on MI308 shipments to China, which flatters the Q2 2026 rate.

025%50%75%100%Q1 ’25: Data Center $3,674M, +57.2% on Q1 ’24 ($2,337M)+57%Q1’25Q2 ’25: Data Center $3,240M, +14.3% on Q2 ’24 ($2,834M)+14%Q2’25Q3 ’25: Data Center $4,341M, +22.3% on Q3 ’24 ($3,549M)+22%Q3’25Q4 ’25: Data Center $5,380M, +39.4% on Q4 ’24 ($3,859M)+39%Q4’25Q1 ’26: Data Center $5,775M, +57.2% on Q1 ’25 ($3,674M)+57%Q1’26Q2 ’26: Data Center $6,718M, +107.3% on Q2 ’25 ($3,240M)+107%Q2’26Q3 ’26: Data Center $8,546M, +96.9% on Q3 ’25 ($4,341M)+97%Q3’26
025%50%75%100%Q1 ’25: Data Center $3,674M, +57.2% on Q1 ’24 ($2,337M)+57%Q1’25Q2 ’25: Data Center $3,240M, +14.3% on Q2 ’24 ($2,834M)+14%Q2’25Q3 ’25: Data Center $4,341M, +22.3% on Q3 ’24 ($3,549M)+22%Q3’25Q4 ’25: Data Center $5,380M, +39.4% on Q4 ’24 ($3,859M)+39%Q4’25Q1 ’26: Data Center $5,775M, +57.2% on Q1 ’25 ($3,674M)+57%Q1’26Q2 ’26: Data Center $6,718M, +107.3% on Q2 ’25 ($3,240M)+107%Q2’26Q3 ’26: Data Center $8,546M, +96.9% on Q3 ’25 ($4,341M)+97%Q3’26

The guidance is further above consensus than the quarter was

Revenue, $. Third quarter: AMD’s guidance midpoint from August, the LSEG consensus, and what AMD reported. Fourth quarter: the consensus before the report and AMD’s new guidance, solid to the low end of its ±3% range and outlined to the high end.

0$6B$12B$18BThird quarterAMD’s guidanceAug 4, midpointQ3 guidance: about $13.0B, plus or minus $300M$13.0B ±$0.3BAnalystsLSEG consensusQ3 consensus: $13.09B$13.09BReportedQ3 reported: $13,377M$13.38BFourth quarterAnalystsconsensus beforeQ4 consensus: $16.23B$16.23BAMD’s guidancemidpoint, ±3%Q4 guidance low end: $16.49BQ4 guidance range: $16.49B–$17.51B, midpoint $17.0B~$17.0B
0$6B$12B$18BThird quarterAMD’s guidanceAug 4, midpointQ3 guidance: about $13.0B, plus or minus $300M$13.0B ±$0.3BAnalystsLSEG consensusQ3 consensus: $13.09B$13.09BReportedQ3 reported: $13,377M$13.38BFourth quarterAnalystsconsensus beforeQ4 consensus: $16.23B$16.23BAMD’s guidancemidpoint, ±3%Q4 guidance low end: $16.49BQ4 guidance range: $16.49B–$17.51B, midpoint $17.0B~$17B

The third quarter beat consensus by 2.2%; the fourth-quarter midpoint is 4.7% above the consensus reported before it, and even the low end, $16.49B, is above it.

Segments, a year apart

SegmentRevenue Q3 ’25Revenue Q3 ’26ChangeOp. income Q3 ’25Op. income Q3 ’26Margin Q3 ’26
Data Center$4,341M$8,546M+97%$1,074M$2,882M34%
Client and Gaming$4,048M$3,722M−8%$867M$573M15%
Embedded$857M$1,109M+29%$283M$453M41%

Data Center’s operating margin rose to 34% from 25%. Client and Gaming fell 8%, all of it in Gaming, which fell about 40% while Client rose about 7%. Segment operating income excludes an operating loss of about $1.08B in “All Other.”

The cost of the ramp

Record revenue came with less free cash flow. Operating cash flow from continuing operations was $1,202M and capital spending $648M, leaving $554M, against $1,558M in the second quarter. Inventory rose to $11.46B from $7.92B at the end of December, a rise of $3.54B in nine months. GAAP net income was $2.43B; cash and short-term investments were $15.78B at quarter end.

The release doesn’t say how much of the ramp is OpenAI’s. Under the agreement announced in October 2025, OpenAI is to deploy 6 GW of AMD GPUs, starting with 1 GW of MI450 in the second half of 2026, and holds a warrant for up to 160M AMD shares that vests as deployments scale. The Q3 release names OpenAI among the Helios customers but gives no deployed capacity and says nothing on the warrant; the 10-Q may.

What this changes on 06.ai

  • Pack lead (009, AI compute demand): AMD’s fourth-quarter guide implies roughly $12.8B of Data Center revenue in one quarter if the call’s “about 50%” holds, about 2.4 times a year earlier. The pack’s accelerator supply side should take AMD’s Q4 figure when it is reported, and the 2027 “above 80%” growth statement once it is in AMD’s own transcript.
  • Series lead: AMD inventory and free cash flow by quarter alongside Data Center revenue. A quarter of record sales with $554M of free cash flow is the working-capital cost of a rack-scale ramp; Super Micro (W.005) shows the same pattern at a larger scale.

Sources and method

ItemFigureSource
Q3 2026 resultsRevenue $13,377M; segments and operating income; GAAP and non-GAAP margins and EPS; free cash flow $554M; inventory $11,463M; cash and short-term investments $15,776M; Q4 guidance “approximately $17 billion, plus or minus 3%”, non-GAAP gross margin about 55%AMD 8-K, exhibit 99.1, Nov 3
Q3 2026 slidesQ4 non-GAAP opex about $3.75B; segment detailAMD 8-K, exhibit 99.2
Earlier quartersQ2 2026 revenue $11,536M, Data Center $6,718M; Q3 guidance about $13B ±$300MAMD, Aug 4
Earlier quartersQ1 2026 revenue $10,253M, Data Center $5,775MAMD, May 5
Earlier quartersQ4 2025 revenue $10,270M, Data Center $5,380M; inventory at Dec 27, 2025AMD, Feb 3
Earlier quartersQ3 2025 and Q3 2024AMD, Nov 4, 2025
Earlier quartersQ2 2025 and Q2 2024; about $800M of MI308 inventory and related charges in Q2 2025AMD, Aug 5, 2025
Earlier quartersQ1 2025 and Q1 2024AMD, May 6, 2025
Earlier quartersQ4 2024AMD, Feb 4, 2025
ConsensusQ3 revenue $13.09B and EPS $1.95 (LSEG); Q4 revenue $16.2B (LSEG); after-hours move about 8%Newsbeep, Nov 3
ConsensusQ4 revenue consensus $16.23B; shares up more than 7% after hoursInvesting.com, Nov 3
CallQ4 Data Center up about 50% sequentially; Client and Gaming down more than 20%; 2027 revenue growth above 80%Investing.com transcript
PricesNov 3 close $483.90, from $466.84; $508.20 after hours, up 5.02%Yahoo Finance
OpenAI agreement6 GW across generations; first 1 GW of MI450 from the second half of 2026; warrant for up to 160M sharesAMD, Oct 6, 2025

Revenue and segments are as AMD reported them in each quarter’s release. From 2025 AMD reports Client and Gaming as one segment; “other segments” here is total revenue less Data Center, so it is comparable across the change. Growth rates divide each quarter by the same quarter a year earlier, or by the previous quarter. The fourth-quarter range is $17.0B × (1 ± 0.03) = $16.49B to $17.51B; its growth divides the midpoint by Q3 ($13,377M) and Q4 2025 ($10,270M). The largest previous quarterly step is the largest increase between consecutive quarters from Q1 2024 to Q3 2026.

Implied fourth-quarter Data Center is third-quarter Data Center × 1.5, from the call’s “about 50%,” as reported in a third-party transcript; the remainder is the guidance midpoint less that. Free cash flow is AMD’s: operating cash flow from continuing operations less capital spending. Consensus figures differ slightly by outlet ($13.06–13.09B for Q3 revenue, $16.2–16.23B for Q4); the chart uses LSEG for Q3 and $16.23B for Q4. Trailing-twelve-month revenue is $45.44B.

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Wire reports are written within hours of the news, on a six-hour schedule. Each lists its sources and shows the arithmetic behind its figures. Not investment advice.