W.013Google’s backstop for Anthropic’s $19B TeraWulf lease starts once the halls are built
TeraWulf leases about 401MW in Kentucky to Anthropic for about $19B over 20 years. On November 4 Google signed three agreements to backstop certain of Anthropic’s lease obligations, each effective only when the last data hall under its lease commences. Google’s earlier backstops of Fluidstack leases at TeraWulf and Cipher covered 14–48% of contract value; this one, like Hut 8’s, has no disclosed amount.
The largest of five Google-backed leases, and one of two without a number
$B. Each bar is the contract value over the initial term as announced; the accent segment is the amount Google agreed to backstop. Hut 8’s release gave no amount for Google’s backstop (n/d: not disclosed). For Justified, TeraWulf’s filing gives none either; Terrain Labs’ summary of the filed form says the termination fee is sized to the expected project debt and left blank. Cipher combines its September 2025 lease and November 2025 expansion, as Lake Mariner combines its two.
Data
| Lease | Tenant, term | MW | Contract value | Backstop | Share | Equity to Google |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TeraWulf, Lake Mariner | Fluidstack, 10 yr, Aug 2025 | 360 | $6.7B | $3.2B | 48% | warrants, about 14% pro forma |
| Cipher, Barber Lake | Fluidstack, 10 yr, Sep–Nov 2025 | 207 | $3.8B | $1.7B | 46% | warrants, about 5.4% pro forma (Sep 2025) |
| TeraWulf JV, Abernathy | Fluidstack, 25 yr, Oct 2025 | 168 | $9.5B | $1.3B | 14% | none reported |
| Hut 8, River Bend | Fluidstack, 15 yr, Dec 2025 | 245 | $7.0B | not disclosed | not disclosed | none reported |
| TeraWulf, Justified | Anthropic, 20 yr, Nov 2026 | 401 | $19.0B | not disclosed | not disclosed | none reported; Raylan equity only if a fee is paid |
What Google signed
The backstop covers the lease after construction, not the build. TeraWulf’s 8-K says each of the three agreements, one per building, becomes effective on the commencement date of the final data hall under its lease. Until then, the support does not apply; 24/7 Wall St. reads this as leaving construction risk with TeraWulf and its lenders. The release says the support is for “anticipated debt financing”; no financing was announced.
If Anthropic stops paying, Google chooses. After a rent default or an Anthropic insolvency, Google may pay the rent due and take over the lease as tenant, or, in certain circumstances, pay a termination fee that amortizes over a defined term, according to the 8-K. After a payment default, it may also defer the choice for a period while it keeps paying rent. If it pays the fee, it can take an equity interest in Raylan Data, the TeraWulf subsidiary that is the landlord. The support ends on conditions that include Anthropic, or an affiliate guaranteeing it, holding certain investment-grade ratings for at least three months.
The form ties the support to Google’s chips. According to Unite.ai’s summary of the filed form, Anthropic must use only Google-approved TPUs as its accelerators while the agreement is in force. Unite.ai and Terrain Labs both report that for six years after the backstop takes effect, Google generally cannot take the termination-fee route, and so would assume the lease after a default, unless the TPU pods installed can draw less than 50% of the tenant’s critical power. The 8-K itself does not mention TPUs, and Terrain notes no filing says Anthropic will run TPUs in the buildings.
The highest rent per megawatt of the five
Average contract value per MW of critical IT load per year, $M: total contract value ÷ initial term ÷ MW, as each deal was announced. Simple averages that ignore escalators and ramp-up. W.010 sets Justified against other AI leases, including Riot’s with Anthropic.
About four and a half years of average rent to build
$B. TeraWulf’s August estimate of the cost of site development and the first data halls, excluding Anthropic’s computing equipment (solid to the low end, outlined to the high end); the debt Bloomberg reported in July that TeraWulf was preparing to raise; and the lease’s average annual rent, $19B ÷ 20 years.
TeraWulf puts the cost at about $10–12M per MW; spread over the full 401MW, $4.0–4.5B would be $10.0–11.2M. If the estimate covers the whole campus, the build cost equals 4.2–4.7 years of average rent, and the reported debt would be 78%–88% of cost.
What is different this time
No amount, and no warrants reported. In Google’s earlier backstops of Fluidstack leases at TeraWulf and Cipher, the releases gave a dollar figure, and at Lake Mariner and Cipher Google took warrants: about 14% of TeraWulf and about 5.4% of Cipher, pro forma. Terrain Labs reports that the Justified form has no warrants; the equity Google can take is in Raylan, and only if it pays a termination fee. Terrain Labs’ summary of the form says the fee is sized to the project debt expected per building, can be reduced to the debt actually borrowed but not raised, and caps Google’s liability if it rejects a lease.
The schedule moved. In July and August TeraWulf expected the full 401MW by early 2028. The November 4 release says phased ready-for-service completions are expected from late 2027 through the second quarter of 2028. The same day TeraWulf signed a definitive engineering and construction agreement with Fluor for the three buildings; its guaranteed maximum price is still being set.
The stock fell with its peers. TeraWulf traded down about 4%, at $12.04, on November 4 afternoon, according to 24/7 Wall St., while Cipher fell about 18% and IREN about 9%, after the Texas governor-elect pledged a data center moratorium. Bernstein cut its TeraWulf price target to $20 from $36. TeraWulf reports third-quarter results on November 6.
What this changes on 06.ai
- Pack lead (015, who funds the neoclouds): Justified’s backstop is a fee sized to project debt and effective only after construction, unlike the dollar amounts with warrants at Lake Mariner and Cipher; construction risk there sits with TeraWulf and its lenders, which the pack’s funding stack should show.
- Pack lead (Who funds the labs?): the credit support form, per Unite.ai, requires Google-approved TPUs at Anthropic’s Kentucky campus while the support is in force; a compute commitment tied to one chip supplier, worth adding beside its Riot lease (W.010).
- Series lead: Google-backed leases with contract value, backstop, share and equity terms. When TeraWulf closes the Justified debt, the size of the facility gives the best available bound on the fee.
Sources and method
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Credit support | Three credit support agreements signed Nov 4 among Raylan Data, TeraWulf, Justified DataPower, Anthropic and Google; Google agreed to backstop certain Anthropic lease obligations; each effective on the commencement date of the final data hall under its lease; on a rent default or insolvency Google may pay rent due and assume the lease or, in certain circumstances, pay a termination fee that amortizes over a defined term; Google may defer its election while paying rent; if it pays the fee it may acquire equity in Raylan; terminates once Anthropic or a guaranteeing affiliate holds certain investment-grade ratings for at least three months; leases amended the same day | TeraWulf 8-K, Nov 4 |
| Release | About $19B of contracted lease commitments with Anthropic; support for anticipated debt financing; Alphabet rated AA+ (S&P) and Aa2 (Moody’s); definitive Fluor EPC agreement for three buildings, guaranteed maximum price being established; ready-for-service from late 2027 through Q2 2028 | TeraWulf, Nov 4 (8-K exhibit 99.1) |
| Form of agreement | For six years after the support takes effect, Google generally cannot take the termination-fee route unless installed TPU pods can draw less than 50% of critical power; no filing says Anthropic will run TPUs; termination fee sized to expected project debt and blank in the public form; 5% administrative fee on amounts Google advances; no warrants | Terrain Labs, Nov 4 |
| Form of agreement | Tenant must use only Google-approved TPUs throughout the agreement’s term; six-year limit on the termination-fee route; fee amortizes over a defined term; no backstop amount disclosed | Unite.ai, Nov 4 |
| Lease | About 401MW of critical IT load, campus access to up to about 480MW of gross power; 20 years plus two five-year options; about $19B initial term, up to about $33B with extensions; full capacity by early 2028 (then guidance); cash $2,619M and debt at June 30 | TeraWulf Q2 2026 results, Aug 5 |
| Cost | About $4–4.5B for site development and the first data halls, excluding customer computing equipment, on about $10–12M per MW | Stocktwits, Aug 24 |
| Debt plan | TeraWulf preparing to raise about $3.5B of debt for the campus, Morgan Stanley expected to lead (Bloomberg) | DCD, Jul 9 |
| Lake Mariner | Google backstop raised to about $3.2B with the CB-5 expansion; Fluidstack contract value about $6.7B over 10 years; about 360MW; Google’s pro forma stake about 14% through warrants | The Block, Aug 18, 2025 |
| Cipher | Google backstops $1.4B of Fluidstack’s 10-year, about $3B lease at Barber Lake, 168MW; warrants for about 5.4% pro forma | Cipher 8-K exhibit 99.1, Sep 25, 2025 |
| Cipher expansion | Expansion of 39MW and about $830M of contract value; Google backstop raised to about $1.73B | Cipher 8-K exhibit 99.1, Nov 20, 2025 |
| Hut 8 | 245MW, 15-year, $7.0B Fluidstack lease at River Bend; Google backstops the base-term lease obligations, no amount given | Cointelegraph, Dec 2025 |
| Abernathy | 168MW, about $9.5B over 25 years, Google backstop about $1.3B | The Block, Oct 28, 2025 |
| Market | WULF $12.04, down 4%; Cipher down 18%; IREN down 9%, in afternoon trading Nov 4; Texas governor-elect pledged a data center moratorium | 24/7 Wall St., via Yahoo, Nov 4 |
| Analysts | Bernstein cut its TeraWulf price target to $20 from $36 | Yahoo Finance, Nov 4 |
Backstop shares are backstop ÷ contract value: TeraWulf, Lake Mariner $3.2B ÷ $6.7B = 47.8%; Cipher, Barber Lake $1.7B ÷ $3.8B = 45.5%; TeraWulf JV, Abernathy $1.3B ÷ $9.5B = 13.7%. Lake Mariner combines the August 14, 2025 backstop ($1.8B on $3.7B) and the August 18 expansion ($1.4B more), on the combined contract value of about $6.7B; Cipher combines the September 2025 lease ($1.4B on about $3B, 168MW) and the November expansion (39MW, about $830M), on about $3.8B. Rent per MW is contract value ÷ years ÷ MW: Justified $19.0B ÷ 20 = $0.95B a year, ÷ 401MW = $2.37M; the others likewise (TeraWulf, Lake Mariner $1.86M, Cipher, Barber Lake $1.84M, TeraWulf JV, Abernathy $2.26M, Hut 8, River Bend $1.90M). The extensions add about $14.0B over ten years, $1.40B a year, which implies escalation in the later years.
Build: $4.0B–$4.5B ÷ 401MW = $9.98M–$11.22M per MW; ÷ $0.95B = 4.2–4.7 years of average rent. Debt: $3.5B ÷ $4.5B–$4.0B = 78%–88% of cost, and 18% of the $19B; the $3.5B is Bloomberg’s July report, not a TeraWulf figure, and the fee is not disclosed. Stock: $12.04 and the 4% fall are 24/7 Wall St.’s afternoon figures, not the close. The TPU, six-year and fee-sizing terms come from summaries of exhibit 10.1, the form of agreement, which 06.ai could not open directly; the 8-K’s summary of the agreements does not mention them.
Wire reports are written within hours of the news, on a six-hour schedule. Each lists its sources and shows the arithmetic behind its figures. Not investment advice.