W.048Samsung’s Texas fab could begin trial operations in December, about two years after its first target. Samsung’s share of foundry sales has fallen from 11.5% to 5.9% in two years
Trial operations at Samsung’s first chip plant in Taylor, Texas could begin in mid-to-late December, The Korea Herald reported on November 8, citing industry sources; Samsung has not confirmed a date and says the plant will be fully operational by the end of 2026, with mass production in 2027. When it chose Taylor in 2021, Samsung estimated $17B and targeted operations in the second half of 2024. Since mid-2024 its share of foundry revenue has fallen from 11.5% to 5.9%, by TrendForce’s count, while TSMC’s rose to 72.5%.
The plant
Samsung’s Taylor fab is moving toward production, about two years late. Equipment installation, line setup and performance checks are under way, and trial operations could begin around mid-to-late December, The Korea Herald reported, citing industry sources. Samsung spokesperson Michele Glaze said in late October that the first plant is expected to be fully operational by the end of 2026, the paper reported; Samsung plans to ramp production in 2027 on its 2-nanometer process. This is not the first reported start: TrendForce, citing the Korea JoongAng Daily, reported in March that trial operations had begun, and the Seoul Economic Daily reported in September that trial production of Tesla’s AI5 chip had started. Neither company confirmed those reports.
The plan has grown while the date has slipped. Samsung chose Taylor in November 2021, estimating $17B and targeting operations in the second half of 2024. In April 2024 the Commerce Department said Samsung expected to invest more than $40B in Texas and offered up to $6.4B. The final award in December 2024 was up to $4.745B, paid against milestones, supporting over $37B of investment; the release gave no reason for the cut. In September 2025 Texas added a $250M grant from its Semiconductor Innovation Fund. The award is about 13% of the investment it supports.
Samsung’s share of foundry revenue has roughly halved in two years
Samsung’s share of global foundry revenue, %, by quarter, from TrendForce’s quarterly rankings of the top ten foundries. TSMC’s share over the same quarters rose from 62.3% to 72.5% (1Q26: about 72%). In 2Q26 Samsung’s foundry revenue was $3.26B.
The customers
Tesla is the plant’s named customer. In July 2025 Samsung disclosed a KRW 22.76 trillion (about $16.5B) contract with an unnamed customer running to the end of 2033; Elon Musk said it was Tesla and that the Texas fab would make its AI6 chip. In April Musk posted that AI6 would be made on Samsung’s 2nm in Texas and AI6.5 on TSMC’s 2nm in Arizona. The Korea Herald puts AI6 production in the second half of 2027. For a second Taylor fab, which Samsung plans to start building by the end of this year and run in volume from 2030, The Korea Herald, citing industry sources, reports orders for HBM logic base dies destined for AMD and Nvidia; no company has confirmed them.
Yields and losses are the open questions. Reported 2nm yields have varied, from about 55% in April (TrendForce) to nearing 60% in September (Digitimes); Samsung has not published figures. It does not report foundry profit separately. Kiwoom Securities estimated the foundry and System LSI businesses lost KRW 6.74 trillion in 2025 and forecast KRW 3.92 trillion for 2026. Samsung’s third-quarter presentation on October 29 cited growth in HBM base-die sales at the foundry and said operations at the first Taylor fab would start.
Taylor is about two years behind its first target; TSMC’s first Arizona fab was not
For three US leading-edge plants: grey runs to the year first targeted, red from there to the current target, and the outline to the later end of a stated range. Samsung Taylor: operations targeted for the second half of 2024 in 2021, now end-2026, with mass production in 2027. TSMC Arizona: production targeted to start in 2024 when announced in 2020; volume production began in Q4 2024, within the targeted year, so its bar has no red. Intel Ohio: production first targeted for 2025; operations now between 2030 and 2031. Half-years and quarters are placed approximately.
Samsung’s stated Texas investment rose from $17B to over $37B; the subsidy was cut by a quarter
$ billions. Samsung’s Texas investment as stated at each step: estimated for the first Taylor fab in 2021; expected across Taylor and Austin when preliminary CHIPS terms were set in April 2024; the amount the final award supports, December 2024. CHIPS direct funding, preliminary and final, both “up to”. Tesla: the value of the contract Samsung disclosed in July 2025, through 2033.
The figures behind the charts
| Quarter | TSMC | Samsung |
|---|---|---|
| 2Q24 | 62.3% | 11.5% |
| 3Q24 | 64.9% | 9.3% |
| 4Q24 | 67.1% | 8.1% |
| 1Q25 | 67.6% | 7.7% |
| 2Q25 | 70.2% | 7.3% |
| 3Q25 | 71% | 6.8% |
| 4Q25 | 70.4% | 7.1% |
| 1Q26 | 72% | 6.5% |
| 2Q26 | 72.5% | 5.9% |
What this changes on 06.ai
- Memory pack: Samsung’s foundry is making HBM base dies, and Korean media report, without confirmation, that the second Taylor fab has won base-die orders, with mass production targeted for 2030; a US source of base dies is a supply point the pack does not yet have.
- Cybercab pack: Tesla’s AI6 depends on Taylor ramping in 2027; a slip past the second half of 2027 would bear on the pack’s chip-supply assumptions.
- Watch TrendForce’s 3Q26 foundry ranking (due around December) for whether Samsung’s share keeps falling.
Sources and method
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Trigger | Trial operations could begin around mid-to-late December, per industry sources; Samsung has not confirmed a date; spokesperson Michele Glaze confirmed in late October the first plant is expected to be fully operational by end-2026; Tesla AI6 production planned for 2H 2027; second plant to start construction this month; AMD and Nvidia HBM base-die orders for it reported, not confirmed | The Korea Herald, Nov 8 |
| Earlier | Trial operations reported started; full-scale production slips to early 2027; Samsung said “production start” means finishing preparations by end-2026 | TrendForce (citing JoongAng), Mar 3 |
| Earlier | Trial production of Tesla’s AI5 on 2nm reported begun (industry sources; not confirmed) | Seoul Economic Daily, Sep 16 |
| 2021 | Estimated $17B investment; target of operations in the second half of 2024 | Samsung, Nov 23, 2021 |
| CHIPS | Preliminary terms for up to $6.4B; Samsung expected to invest more than $40B | Commerce Department, Apr 15, 2024 |
| CHIPS | Award of up to $4.745B supporting over $37B of investment (the release also quotes “nearly $37 billion”) | NIST, Dec 20, 2024 |
| Yield | Samsung Foundry nears 60% 2nm yield | Digitimes, Sep 29 |
| Texas | $250M Texas Semiconductor Innovation Fund grant to Samsung Austin Semiconductor for Taylor | Office of the Governor, Sep 17, 2025 |
| Tesla | KRW 22.76 trillion (about $16.5B) contract with an unnamed customer, Jul 24, 2025 to Dec 31, 2033; Musk named Tesla and said the fab will make AI6 | Korea Times, Jul 28, 2025 |
| Tesla | Musk: AI6 on Samsung 2nm in Texas, AI6.5 on TSMC 2nm in Arizona | Wccftech, Apr 19 |
| Fab 2 | Samsung preparing to break ground on a second Taylor fab by year-end; mass production targeted for 2030 | Korea Times, Jul 30 |
| Share | Foundry revenue share 2Q26: TSMC 72.5%, Samsung 5.9% (revenue $3.26B); earlier quarters from TrendForce’s quarterly rankings | TrendForce, Sep 9 |
| Share | 2Q24: TSMC 62.3%, Samsung 11.5% | TrendForce, Sep 2, 2024 |
| Share | 4Q25: TSMC 70.4%, Samsung 7.1% | TrendForce, Mar 12 |
| Yield | 2nm yields reported at about 55%, below the mass-production threshold; Samsung has not confirmed | TrendForce, Apr 14 |
| Losses | Foundry and System LSI operating loss KRW 6.74T in 2025, forecast KRW 3.92T in 2026 (Kiwoom Securities estimates; Samsung does not report them separately) | TrendForce, Sep 30 |
| Q3 | Samsung plans to strengthen supply “with the start of operations at the first fab in Taylor” | Samsung Q3 2026 earnings deck, Oct 29 |
| TSMC | Arizona fab 1 in N4 volume production since Q4 2024; fab 2 (N3) volume production targeted 2027 | TSMC Arizona |
| TSMC | Arizona fab announced May 2020 with production targeted to start in 2024 | TSMC, May 15, 2020 |
| Intel | Ohio module 1 construction to complete in 2030, operations between 2030 and 2031 (first targeted 2025) | Intel, Feb 28, 2025; ENR, Mar 4, 2025 |
We could not read Glaze’s October statement first-hand; it is as The Korea Herald reported it. Share: 5.9 − 11.5 = -5.6 points; 5.9 ÷ 11.5 − 1 = -48.7%; TSMC 72.5 − 62.3 = +10.2 points; 2Q26 gap 66.6 points, TSMC 12.3 times Samsung. CHIPS: 6.4 − 4.745 = 1.655, 25.9% of the preliminary amount; 4.745 ÷ 37 = 12.8%. Investment: 37 ÷ 17 = 2.18. Tesla: July 24, 2025 to December 31, 2033 is 8.44 years; 16.5 ÷ 8.44 = 1.96 ($B a year), an average, not a schedule. Delay: the second half of 2024 to the end of 2026 is about two years, 2.5 on the chart’s approximate placing.
Wire reports are written within hours of the news, on a six-hour schedule. Each lists its sources and shows the arithmetic behind its figures. Not investment advice.