W.015AMD’s purchase commitments rose 61% in a quarter, to $48.8B
AMD’s third-quarter 10-Q puts its unconditional purchase commitments at $48.8B on September 26, up from $30.3B in June; the amount due in 2027 roughly quadrupled to $22.2B. The filing also books a $1.1B loss on the warrants AMD gave OpenAI and Meta, lists $13.3B of data center leases not yet started, and prices the Taalas deal at about $2.9B.
The 2027 bucket went from $5.5B to $22.2B
AMD’s unconditional purchase commitments, $M, at the end of each 2026 quarter, by the year payments fall due, from Note 11 (Q3) and the matching notes in the Q1 and Q2 10-Qs. The first segment is the remainder of 2026 as of each date, so it shrinks as the year passes. AMD says the commitments cover wafers, substrates, memory, other components and assembly, test, mark and packaging services, plus cloud compute used mainly for internal R&D and licenses; it does not split them by item. In Q1 and Q2 the totals included cloud compute capacity without a split; in Q3 AMD lists $6.2B of third-party cloud capacity separately, so the quarters are not strictly comparable.
Data
| $M, at | Rest of 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Later | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 18,342 | 2,721 | 1,934 | 1,930 | 727 | 8 | 25,662 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | 17,386 | 5,474 | 2,851 | 2,528 | 1,471 | 566 | 30,276 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | 11,218 | 22,206 | 4,959 | 3,786 | 4,231 | 2,361 | 48,761 |
What the filing adds to the results
Commitments grew faster than revenue. AMD’s results, covered in W.004, showed data center revenue of $8.5B for the quarter. The 10-Q, filed after the results, shows unconditional purchase commitments of $48,761M at September 26, against $30,276M at the end of June and $25,662M at the end of March: +61% in one quarter and +90% in two. Of the total, $33.4B falls due in the rest of 2026 and 2027, and $22.2B in 2027 alone. In June, AMD’s schedule had $5.5B due in 2027.
The filing does not say what the new commitments buy. AMD describes them as wafers, substrates, memory, other components and assembly, test, mark and packaging services, plus cloud compute for internal R&D and licenses, and does not break them down. Its risk factors refer to an industry-wide memory shortage and say AMD may commit to buy third-party components for its Helios rack systems. Cash spent on supply prepayments also rose: the nine-month cash flow statement shows a $2.1B increase in prepaid expenses and other assets, mainly prepayments of supply agreements, against $1.0B at the half-year. Inventory rose $2,995M in the quarter, to $11,463M; AMD attributes the $3.5B nine-month increase mainly to the data center ramp.
Beside the commitments: leases, guarantees and compute
Obligations and contingent amounts the Q3 10-Q lists at September 26, $M, and AMD’s cash and short-term investments for comparison (last bar). The bars are not additive: guarantees are maximum potential payments, of which nothing has been paid; equity investment commitments are “up to” amounts; the cloud compute bar is a separate “additional commitment” for capacity made available to third parties, a maximum that falls as those customers pay, and is not in the purchase-commitment total, which includes only compute used mainly for internal R&D.
Leases, guarantees and the warrants
AMD has signed $13.3B of data center leases that have not started. The 10-Q says they have terms of 10 to 15 years, are expected to start commencing from the second quarter of fiscal 2027, and that AMD expects to assign or sublease them to commercial partners. In June the filing listed $4.5B of data center and other real estate leases not yet commenced, with 6-to-11-year terms and no mention of assignment. AMD’s guarantees, at a maximum of $8.5B, are $7.7B on data center leases and $750M on commercial partners’ debt, with terms of up to six months; no partner was in default. Against all this, AMD had $15.8B of cash and short-term investments and $7.1B of debt principal.
The warrants cost AMD $1.1B in the quarter, without a share vesting. AMD granted OpenAI and Meta, named in its second-quarter filing, warrants for up to 160M shares each at $0.01, vesting in tranches on purchase milestones and share-price targets (in some tranches, against a market index), and exercisable only after technical and commercial conditions are met. Because they are classified as a liability, AMD remeasures them each quarter; the third-quarter loss mainly reflects the higher share price. The filing’s notes show a $1,097M loss from the change in fair value of the warrant liability, within other income (expense), net, below operating income; that line was a net −$902M for the quarter. The 10-Q puts their fair value at $178.58 a share, against a weighted-average grant-date value of $14.25. Separately, $4.5B of grant-date value has yet to be booked as a reduction of revenue, in proportion to the customers’ purchases. No shares had vested at September 26.
Taalas has a price. AMD agreed to buy Taalas, a maker of specialized inference silicon, in August without disclosing terms, The Logic reported. The 10-Q values the consideration at about $2.9B of cash and stock, including up to about $1.4B that depends on future conditions, with closing expected by the end of 2026, subject to regulatory approval.
Inventory rose $3.0B in the quarter
AMD inventory, $M, at December 27, 2025 and at the end of the second and third quarters of 2026, from its balance sheets. AMD attributes the nine-month increase mainly to the data center ramp.
What this changes on 06.ai
- Series lead: AMD’s unconditional purchase commitments by quarter, with the next-year bucket shown on its own. The Q4 figure arrives with the 10-K in early 2027.
- Pack lead (AI compute demand; memory balance): $22.2B of 2027 commitments at AMD, mostly supply, is a firm input for the accelerator supply side, though the filing does not split memory from wafers.
- Series lead: chipmakers’ data center leases not yet commenced and guarantee exposure ($13.3B and $8.5B at AMD), alongside the hyperscaler leases in W.007.
Sources and method
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 10-Q | Unconditional purchase commitments $48,761M by year (rest of 2026 $11,218M; 2027 $22,206M; 2028 $4,959M; 2029 $3,786M; 2030 $4,231M; later $2,361M); data center leases not yet commenced $13.3B, which AMD expects to assign or sublease; guarantees up to $8.5B ($7.7B data center leases, $750M partner debt); cloud compute for third parties $6,175M as a separate maximum commitment; equity investment commitments up to $5.1B; warrants: up to 160M shares each, $0.01 exercise price, none vested, fair value $178.58 a share against a $14.25 grant-date average, $1,097M change in fair value, $1.2B liability, $4.5B grant-date value still to reduce revenue; Taalas about $2.9B including up to about $1.4B contingent; inventory $11,463M; cash and short-term investments $15.8B; debt principal $7,125M | AMD 10-Q, Q3 2026 |
| Q2 10-Q | Unconditional purchase commitments $30,276M at Jun 27, 2026 by year; guarantees $4.1B; data center and other real estate leases not yet commenced $4.5B (6 to 11 years); inventory $8,468M; warrants to OpenAI (Oct 2025) and Meta (Feb 2026) named; no financial statement impact through June | AMD 10-Q, Aug 2026 |
| Q1 10-Q | Unconditional purchase commitments $25,662M at Mar 28, 2026 by year | AMD 10-Q, May 2026 |
| Filing on EDGAR | The same Q3 10-Q | SEC EDGAR |
| Charge | Reported a noncash warrant charge of about $1B (headline) tied to the OpenAI and Meta deals; its text gives $1.07B, which differs from the filing’s $1,097M | The Manila Times, Nov 5 |
| Taalas | AMD agreed to buy Taalas on Aug 6 without disclosing terms; Taalas had raised $169M in February | The Logic |
Commitments are the sum of each year in the filing’s table: Mar 28, 2026, $25,662M; Jun 27, 2026, $30,276M; Sep 26, 2026, $48,761M. Growth: $48,761M ÷ $30,276M − 1 = +61.1%; ÷ $25,662M − 1 = +90.0%. The 2027 multiple is $22,206M ÷ $5,474M = 4.06. Rest of 2026 plus 2027: $11,218M + $22,206M = $33,424M. Chart 1’s grey segment is 2028 + 2029 + 2030 + later.
Warrants: at the September fair value, 2 × 160M × $178.58 = $57.1B if every share vested; at the grant-date average, $4.56B; the ratio of fair values is 12.5. These are illustrations, not amounts AMD reports. The $1,097M is the line in the notes within other income (expense), net; the warrant note describes a noncash charge of $1.2B, primarily the remeasurement loss, and the cash flow statement adds back $1,179M for the warrants; 06.ai uses the $1,097M line. As a scale comparison only, $1,097M is 39% of the quarter’s $2,832M operating income. Taalas: $2,900M − $1,400M = about $1,500M not contingent. Prepayments: $2,100M − $1,000M = $1,100M added in the third quarter, from cash flow statements rounded to $0.1B. Inventory: $11,463M − $8,468M = $2,995M. Net cash: $15,776M − $7,125M = $8,651M.
Wire reports are written within hours of the news, on a six-hour schedule. Each lists its sources and shows the arithmetic behind its figures. Not investment advice.