W.034Talk of Anthropic’s IPO value fell to $1.2–1.3T. That is about 18 times its third-quarter sales, annualized
Some prospective investors in Anthropic’s IPO are discussing a valuation of $1.2T to $1.3T, Bloomberg reported on November 6, down from $1.4–1.5T told to bankers after the October briefing and as much as $2T in early October. The midpoint is 30% above May’s $965B private round, and 18.4 times Anthropic’s third-quarter revenue of $16.96B annualized. A raise of up to $100B, as reported, would be 7–8% of the company at that price.
A month of lower numbers
The figures have come down twice since early October. Prospective investors talked about valuations as high as $2T in early October, Bloomberg reported on November 6; after Anthropic’s October briefing on its financials they gave bankers estimates of $1.4T to $1.5T (Reuters had reported talk of about $1.5T on October 15, the day after the company’s investor day), and after this week’s selloff some potential backers are discussing $1.2T to $1.3T. The Wall Street Journal reported that one of three prospective investors it spoke to suggested something closer to $1T. A person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that no final decisions have been made; Anthropic declined to comment. Its amended S-1, filed November 2, still leaves the price range blank.
The trigger was the market. The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4% on Thursday, November 5, removing about $2.3T of market value, as chip and data center stocks fell after the midterm elections. Before Thursday’s rout, Michael Alfaro of Gallo Partners had told Bloomberg that Anthropic needed a valuation of about $1.3T to $1.4T to build a quality order book. Reuters reported that the roadshow had been expected to start the week of November 9, and that some investors now see $1.5T as the high end.
From as high as $2T to $1.2–1.3T in about a month
Anthropic’s valuation, $ trillions: its last three private rounds at their post-money valuations (from its announcements), and the IPO valuations prospective investors discussed, as reported, in date order; Reuters’ report of about $1.5T on October 15 belongs to the same post-briefing step. Ranges are drawn as a solid bar to the low end and an outline to the high end. The talk figures are investors’ views, not offers or a price range.
What the range prices in
At $1.25T, buyers would pay about 18 years of revenue at the third quarter’s pace. Anthropic’s revenue was $16.96B in the three months to September 30, up 47% from the second quarter, according to its amended S-1. Four times that is about $67.8B. Against that figure the November range is 17.7× to 19.2×; the $2T discussed in early October was 29.5×. On revenue for the four quarters to September, $35.3B, the midpoint is 35.4×, because revenue has grown so fast that the last quarter is nearly half the year.
The lower talk is still above the last private price. The $1.2–1.3T range is 24% to 35% above the $965B post-money valuation of the $65B Series H in May, a round that included $15B of investment hyperscalers had committed earlier. The midpoint is 38% below the early-October high. A raise of up to $100B, the size the Wall Street Journal and Reuters have reported, would be about 8% of a $1.25T company, or 7.4% if $1.25T is the value before the new money; one investor told the Journal it could be about $80B. Anthropic held $131.85B of cash and short-term investments at September 30, and reported about $895.4B of committed spending, mostly on compute and infrastructure, as W.001 set out.
The November range is 17.7× to 19.2× annualized revenue
Each valuation discussed, divided by Anthropic’s third-quarter 2026 revenue times four ($67.8B; our calculation from the S-1/A). Annualizing one quarter is a simple run-rate, not a forecast.
Data
| Valuation | ÷ Q3 × 4 | ÷ last four quarters | vs Series H | $100B raise as share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2T | 29.5× | 56.7× | +107% | 5.0% |
| $1.5T | 22.1× | 42.5× | +55% | 6.7% |
| $1.3T | 19.2× | 36.8× | +35% | 7.7% |
| $1.25T | 18.4× | 35.4× | +30% | 8.0% |
| $1.2T | 17.7× | 34.0× | +24% | 8.3% |
OpenAI is at the same number
OpenAI’s new round values it at about the midpoint. Bloomberg reported on November 6 that OpenAI had closed about $11B of a funding round at a $1.25T valuation, and that the round could reach $20B in the coming weeks. That is 47% above the $852B post-money valuation of its $122B round in March. The reports reviewed for this post do not say whether $1.25T is before or after the new money. The two companies count revenue differently, so their multiples are not compared here.
Two labs, about $1.25T each
Valuations, $ billions: OpenAI’s March round (post-money, from OpenAI) and its November first close (as reported by Bloomberg; pre- or post-money not stated); Anthropic’s May Series H (post-money, from Anthropic) and the midpoint of the $1.2–1.3T IPO range reported on November 6.
What this changes on 06.ai
- Labs funding pack: the valuation prospective investors are discussing for the IPO now has a dated, reported range ($1.2–1.3T on November 6) and a multiple to track against it (17.7×–19.2× annualized third-quarter revenue). A price range in a later S-1 amendment would replace the talk with a number.
- Watch: whether the raise stays at up to $100B or falls toward the $80B one investor suggested; at $1.25T the difference is about 1.6% of the company.
Sources and method
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 talk | $1.2T–$1.3T discussed by some potential backers after the selloff; $1.4–1.5T told to bankers after the October briefing; as high as $2T in early October; before the rout, Gallo Partners’ Michael Alfaro said about $1.3–1.4T was needed to build a quality book; no final decisions made | Bloomberg, via Yahoo Finance, Nov 6 |
| Nov 6 talk | Bloomberg report relayed: $1.2–1.3T, from $1.4–1.5T; WSJ: one prospective investor suggested closer to $1T; Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4% on Nov 5, about $2.3T of value | Investing.com, Nov 6 |
| WSJ | Three prospective investors said the price likely needs to come down; one suggested about $1T; one said the raise could be about $80B rather than up to $100B | Decrypt, via Yahoo Finance, Nov 6 |
| Reuters | $1.5T recently discussed and seen by some as the high end; raise could reach $100B; roadshow had been expected to start the week of Nov 9 | Reuters, via Business Standard, Nov 6 |
| October | Some investors discussed about $1.5T after the Oct 14 investor day, down from about $2T | Reuters, via Investing.com and Yahoo Finance, Oct 15 |
| Series H | $65B at $965B post-money, May 28, 2026, including $15B of previously committed hyperscaler investment | Anthropic |
| Series G | $30B at $380B post-money, Feb 12, 2026 | Anthropic |
| Series F | $13B at $183B post-money, Sep 2, 2025 | Anthropic |
| S-1/A | Revenue Q4 2025 $2,040M, Q1 2026 $4,731M, Q2 $11,555M, Q3 $16,956M; cash and equivalents $95,562M and $131,845M with short-term investments at Sep 30; aggregate committed spend about $895.4B; price range not yet set | Anthropic S-1/A, SEC EDGAR, Nov 2 |
| S-1/A | The same quarterly and balance sheet figures, read from the filing | PPC Land, Nov 3 |
| OpenAI | About $11B first close at $1.25T; the round may reach $20B | Bloomberg, via Investing.com, Nov 6 |
| OpenAI | $122B of committed capital at $852B post-money, Mar 31, 2026 | OpenAI |
Valuation talk is reported, not disclosed: Bloomberg, Reuters and the Wall Street Journal each cite people familiar with the discussions or prospective investors. Midpoint (1.2 + 1.3) ÷ 2 = $1.25T. Run-rate: 16,956 × 4 = 67,824 ($M). Multiples: 2000 ÷ 67.824 = 29.49; 1500 ÷ 67.824 = 22.12; 1300 ÷ 67.824 = 19.17; 1250 ÷ 67.824 = 18.43; 1200 ÷ 67.824 = 17.69. Last four quarters 2,040 + 4,731 + 11,555 + 16,956 = 35,282; 1250 ÷ 35.282 = 35.4. Growth: 16,956 ÷ 11,555 − 1 = 46.7%. Against Series H: 1200 ÷ 965 − 1 = 24.4%; 1300 ÷ 965 − 1 = 34.7%; 1250 ÷ 965 − 1 = 29.5%. From the early-October high: 1 − 1.25 ÷ 2 = 37.5%. Raise: 100 ÷ 1250 = 8.0%; if pre-money, 100 ÷ (1250 + 100) = 7.4%; (100 − 80) ÷ 1250 = 1.6%. OpenAI: 1,250 ÷ 852 − 1 = 46.7%. Revenue figures are from the amended S-1 as filed November 2; the quarterly figures were read from the filing via PPC Land and match the amounts W.001 used.
Wire reports are written within hours of the news, on a six-hour schedule. Each lists its sources and shows the arithmetic behind its figures. Not investment advice.